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Progreso vs Racing Montevideo Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Primera División, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Primera División

Progreso badge Progreso
VS

Final result2–1

Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Finished

Racing Montevideo badge Racing Montevideo
OUR RECOMMENDATIONCombo Double chance : draw or Racing Montevideo and -3.5 goalsSelection confidence: 90%
10%
HOME WIN
ProgresoProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
45%
AWAY WIN
Racing MontevideoProbability
GOALS MARKET-3.5Total goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Racing Montevideo
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : draw or Racing Montevideo and -3.5 goals

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorProgresoRacing Montevideo
Form53.0%47.0%
Attack56.0%44.0%
Defence38.0%63.0%
Poisson26.0%74.0%
H2H15.0%85.0%
Goals14.0%86.0%
Total33.7%66.5%

Team form and goal analysis

Progreso

Recent form (last 5): L W W L W

Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.

Racing Montevideo

Recent form (last 5): D W L W D

Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Racing Montevideo 1–1 Progreso (26 Mar 2026)
  2. Racing Montevideo 0–0 Progreso (29 Sep 2025)
  3. Racing Montevideo 3–0 Progreso (22 Jun 2025)
  4. Progreso 0–1 Racing Montevideo (30 Mar 2025)
  5. Racing Montevideo 1–0 Progreso (21 Sep 2024)
  6. Progreso 3–2 Racing Montevideo (07 Jul 2024)
  7. Progreso 4–3 Racing Montevideo (10 Mar 2024)
  8. Racing Montevideo 2–1 Progreso (14 Aug 2022)
  9. Progreso 0–2 Racing Montevideo (22 May 2022)
  10. Progreso 2–1 Racing Montevideo (09 Oct 2019)

Progreso recent matches

Scores below are shown as Progreso goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19 Sep 2026Boston RiverAway2–1Won
16 Sep 2026Club NacionalHome0–1Lost
13 Sep 2026CerroHome1–3Lost
07 Sep 2026Albion FCAway1–0Won
03 Sep 2026Albion FCAway1–2Lost
Progreso detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Progreso performance

Fixtures played home14
Fixtures played away15
Fixtures played total29
Wins home3
Wins away4
Wins total7
Draws home2
Draws away2
Draws total4
Losses home9
Losses away9
Losses total18
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws2
Biggest streak losses5
Biggest wins home2-1
Biggest wins away1-2
Biggest losses home0-3
Biggest losses away2-0
Biggest goals for home3
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away2
Clean sheet home2
Clean sheet away2
Clean sheet total4
Failed to score home6
Failed to score away7
Failed to score total13
Penalty scored total3
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total3

Progreso goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home12
Goals for total away11
Goals for total23
Goals for average home0.90
Goals for average away0.70
Goals for average total0.80
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total5
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage22.73%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total2
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage9.09%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total3
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage13.64%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total2
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage9.09%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage9.09%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total8
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage36.36%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over16
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under13
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over6
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under23
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under28
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under29
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under29
Goals against total home23
Goals against total away19
Goals against total42
Goals against average home1.60
Goals against average away1.30
Goals against average total1.40
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total7
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage16.28%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total8
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage18.60%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total8
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage18.60%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total5
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage11.63%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total7
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage16.28%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total8
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage18.60%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over25
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under4
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over14
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under15
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under26
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under29
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under29

Racing Montevideo recent matches

Scores below are shown as Racing Montevideo goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
21 Sep 2026Liverpool MontevideoAway0–0Draw
17 Sep 2026JuventudAway0–3Lost
12 Sep 2026Boston RiverHome3–2Won
09 Sep 2026Central EspanolHome2–4Lost
06 Sep 2026CerroAway0–1Lost
Racing Montevideo detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Racing Montevideo performance

Fixtures played home15
Fixtures played away14
Fixtures played total29
Wins home9
Wins away5
Wins total14
Draws home5
Draws away6
Draws total11
Losses home1
Losses away3
Losses total4
Biggest streak wins5
Biggest streak draws4
Biggest streak losses1
Biggest wins home4-0
Biggest wins away1-3
Biggest losses home2-4
Biggest losses away2-0
Biggest goals for home4
Biggest goals for away3
Biggest goals against home4
Biggest goals against away2
Clean sheet home8
Clean sheet away5
Clean sheet total13
Failed to score home1
Failed to score away6
Failed to score total7
Penalty scored total5
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total5

Racing Montevideo goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home22
Goals for total away13
Goals for total35
Goals for average home1.50
Goals for average away0.90
Goals for average total1.20
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total4
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage11.43%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total7
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage20.00%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total6
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage17.14%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total2
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage5.71%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total6
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage17.14%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total10
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage28.57%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over22
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under7
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over9
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under20
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over3
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under26
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under28
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under29
Goals against total home11
Goals against total away11
Goals against total22
Goals against average home0.70
Goals against average away0.80
Goals against average total0.80
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total4
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage18.18%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total3
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage13.64%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total4
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage18.18%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total2
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage9.09%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total4
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage18.18%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total5
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage22.73%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over16
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under13
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over4
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under25
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under28
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under28
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under29

Goal markets and betting-tip context

The recorded goals selection for this fixture is -3.5. Read it alongside both teams' scoring averages and the goal analysis above.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Progreso predictions and analysis, Racing Montevideo match tips, or more Primera División predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.