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Progreso vs Defensor Sporting Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Primera División, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Primera División

Progreso badge Progreso
VS

Final result0–2

Parque Abraham Paladino

Match Finished

Defensor Sporting badge Defensor Sporting
OUR RECOMMENDATIONDouble chance : Progreso or drawSelection confidence: 70%
35%
HOME WIN
ProgresoProbability
35%
DRAW
DrawProbability
30%
AWAY WIN
Defensor SportingProbability
GOALS MARKETNot suppliedTotal goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Progreso
Betting advice
Double chance : Progreso or draw

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorProgresoDefensor Sporting
Form71.0%29.0%
Attack50.0%50.0%
Defence67.0%33.0%
Poisson44.0%56.0%
H2H40.0%60.0%
Goals38.0%62.0%
Total51.7%48.3%

Team form and goal analysis

Progreso

Recent form (last 5): W L D W W

Average goals scored: 0.90 per match.

Defensor Sporting

Recent form (last 5): W L L L D

Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Defensor Sporting 1–0 Progreso (28 Apr 2026)
  2. Defensor Sporting 0–0 Progreso (12 Jan 2026)
  3. Progreso 2–3 Defensor Sporting (19 Oct 2025)
  4. Defensor Sporting 1–2 Progreso (21 Apr 2025)
  5. Defensor Sporting 3–0 Progreso (14 Nov 2024)
  6. Defensor Sporting 1–1 Progreso (16 Jun 2024)
  7. Progreso 1–4 Defensor Sporting (12 May 2024)
  8. Defensor Sporting 3–1 Progreso (04 Nov 2022)
  9. Progreso 1–1 Defensor Sporting (26 Oct 2022)
  10. Progreso 3–3 Defensor Sporting (11 Feb 2021)

Progreso recent matches

Scores below are shown as Progreso goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
25 Oct 2026WanderersAway1–0Won
17 Oct 2026JuventudHome2–0Won
10 Oct 2026PenarolAway1–1Draw
03 Oct 2026Liverpool MontevideoAway2–3Lost
26 Sep 2026Racing MontevideoHome2–1Won
Progreso detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Progreso performance

Fixtures played home16
Fixtures played away18
Fixtures played total34
Wins home5
Wins away5
Wins total10
Draws home2
Draws away3
Draws total5
Losses home9
Losses away10
Losses total19
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws2
Biggest streak losses5
Biggest wins home2-0
Biggest wins away1-2
Biggest losses home0-3
Biggest losses away2-0
Biggest goals for home3
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away3
Clean sheet home3
Clean sheet away3
Clean sheet total6
Failed to score home6
Failed to score away7
Failed to score total13
Penalty scored total3
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total3

Progreso goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home16
Goals for total away15
Goals for total31
Goals for average home1.00
Goals for average away0.80
Goals for average total0.90
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total5
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage16.67%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage13.33%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total3
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage10.00%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage13.33%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage6.67%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total12
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage40.00%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over21
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under13
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over9
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under25
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under33
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under34
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under34
Goals against total home24
Goals against total away23
Goals against total47
Goals against average home1.50
Goals against average away1.30
Goals against average total1.40
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total7
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage14.58%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total8
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage16.67%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total9
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage18.75%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total6
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage12.50%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total7
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage14.58%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total11
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage22.92%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over28
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under6
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over15
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under19
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over4
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under30
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under34
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under34

Defensor Sporting recent matches

Scores below are shown as Defensor Sporting goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
24 Oct 2026Racing MontevideoHome3–3Draw
17 Oct 2026Boston RiverAway0–1Lost
10 Oct 2026CerroHome2–3Lost
03 Oct 2026Albion FCAway2–3Lost
30 Sep 2026Plaza ColoniaHome0–1Lost
Defensor Sporting detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Defensor Sporting performance

Fixtures played home18
Fixtures played away16
Fixtures played total34
Wins home7
Wins away1
Wins total8
Draws home4
Draws away8
Draws total12
Losses home7
Losses away7
Losses total14
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws3
Biggest streak losses3
Biggest wins home2-0
Biggest wins away1-2
Biggest losses home0-4
Biggest losses away3-2
Biggest goals for home3
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home4
Biggest goals against away3
Clean sheet home6
Clean sheet away2
Clean sheet total8
Failed to score home4
Failed to score away6
Failed to score total10
Penalty scored total2
Penalty scored percentage66.67%
Penalty missed total1
Penalty missed percentage33.33%
Penalty total3

Defensor Sporting goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home20
Goals for total away13
Goals for total33
Goals for average home1.10
Goals for average away0.80
Goals for average total1.00
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total4
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage12.12%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total6
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage18.18%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total6
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage18.18%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage12.12%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total6
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage18.18%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total7
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage21.21%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over24
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under10
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over8
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under26
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under33
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under34
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under34
Goals against total home24
Goals against total away19
Goals against total43
Goals against average home1.30
Goals against average away1.20
Goals against average total1.30
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total5
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage11.63%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total8
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage18.60%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total7
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage16.28%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total3
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage6.98%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total3
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage6.98%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total17
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage39.53%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over26
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under8
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over10
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under24
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over6
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under28
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under33
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under34

Goal markets and betting-tip context

No goals selection is currently recorded for this fixture. The available team form and scoring data can still help explain the match outlook.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Progreso predictions and analysis, Defensor Sporting match tips, or more Primera División predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.