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Penarol vs Progreso Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Primera División, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Primera División

Penarol badge Penarol
VS

Final result1–1

Estadio Centenario

Match Finished

Progreso badge Progreso
OUR RECOMMENDATIONDouble chance : Penarol or drawSelection confidence: 90%
45%
HOME WIN
PenarolProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
10%
AWAY WIN
ProgresoProbability
GOALS MARKETNot suppliedTotal goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Penarol
Betting advice
Double chance : Penarol or draw

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorPenarolProgreso
Form59.0%41.0%
Attack53.0%47.0%
Defence67.0%33.0%
Poisson72.0%28.0%
H2H100.0%0.0%
Goals82.0%18.0%
Total66.6%33.4%

Team form and goal analysis

Penarol

Recent form (last 5): W W W D W

Average goals scored: 1.70 per match.

Progreso

Recent form (last 5): W L W W L

Average goals scored: 0.90 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Progreso 0–2 Penarol (05 Apr 2026)
  2. Penarol 2–1 Progreso (02 Aug 2025)
  3. Progreso 1–3 Penarol (02 Feb 2025)
  4. Progreso 1–5 Penarol (27 Nov 2024)
  5. Progreso 0–2 Penarol (22 Jun 2024)
  6. Penarol 3–1 Progreso (24 May 2024)
  7. Progreso 0–0 Penarol (25 Nov 2021)
  8. Penarol 1–0 Progreso (15 Aug 2021)
  9. Progreso 0–2 Penarol (25 Mar 2021)
  10. Penarol 2–1 Progreso (06 Oct 2020)

Penarol recent matches

Scores below are shown as Penarol goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
05 Oct 2026Racing MontevideoAway1–0Won
01 Oct 2026Atletico TorqueAway1–1Draw
26 Sep 2026Boston RiverHome2–1Won
24 Sep 2026DanubioAway1–1Draw
19 Sep 2026CerroAway2–1Won
Penarol detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Penarol performance

Fixtures played home17
Fixtures played away15
Fixtures played total32
Wins home10
Wins away10
Wins total20
Draws home3
Draws away3
Draws total6
Losses home4
Losses away2
Losses total6
Biggest streak wins4
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses1
Biggest wins home5-1
Biggest wins away0-4
Biggest losses home0-2
Biggest losses away2-1
Biggest goals for home5
Biggest goals for away4
Biggest goals against home2
Biggest goals against away2
Clean sheet home2
Clean sheet away9
Clean sheet total11
Failed to score home3
Failed to score away2
Failed to score total5
Penalty scored total3
Penalty scored percentage75.00%
Penalty missed total1
Penalty missed percentage25.00%
Penalty total4

Penarol goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home33
Goals for total away22
Goals for total55
Goals for average home1.90
Goals for average away1.50
Goals for average total1.70
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total6
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage11.32%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total11
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage20.75%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total6
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage11.32%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total10
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage18.87%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total5
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage9.43%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total15
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage28.30%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over27
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under5
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over17
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under15
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over8
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under24
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under30
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under31
Goals against total home18
Goals against total away8
Goals against total26
Goals against average home1.10
Goals against average away0.50
Goals against average total0.80
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total4
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage14.29%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage14.29%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total7
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage25.00%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total5
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage17.86%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total3
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage10.71%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total5
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage17.86%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over21
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under11
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over5
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under27
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under32
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under32
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under32

Progreso recent matches

Scores below are shown as Progreso goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
03 Oct 2026Liverpool MontevideoAway2–3Lost
26 Sep 2026Racing MontevideoHome2–1Won
19 Sep 2026Boston RiverAway2–1Won
16 Sep 2026Club NacionalHome0–1Lost
13 Sep 2026CerroHome1–3Lost
Progreso detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Progreso performance

Fixtures played home15
Fixtures played away16
Fixtures played total31
Wins home4
Wins away4
Wins total8
Draws home2
Draws away2
Draws total4
Losses home9
Losses away10
Losses total19
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws2
Biggest streak losses5
Biggest wins home2-1
Biggest wins away1-2
Biggest losses home0-3
Biggest losses away2-0
Biggest goals for home3
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away3
Clean sheet home2
Clean sheet away2
Clean sheet total4
Failed to score home6
Failed to score away7
Failed to score total13
Penalty scored total3
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total3

Progreso goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home14
Goals for total away13
Goals for total27
Goals for average home0.90
Goals for average away0.80
Goals for average total0.90
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total5
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage19.23%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total3
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage11.54%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total3
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage11.54%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total3
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage11.54%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage7.69%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total10
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage38.46%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over18
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under13
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over8
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under23
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under30
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under31
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under31
Goals against total home24
Goals against total away22
Goals against total46
Goals against average home1.60
Goals against average away1.40
Goals against average total1.50
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total7
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage14.89%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total8
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage17.02%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total9
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage19.15%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total6
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage12.77%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total7
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage14.89%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total10
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage21.28%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over27
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under4
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over15
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under16
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over4
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under27
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under31
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under31

Goal markets and betting-tip context

No goals selection is currently recorded for this fixture. The available team form and scoring data can still help explain the match outlook.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Penarol predictions and analysis, Progreso match tips, or more Primera División predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.