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Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for La Liga, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

La Liga

Real Madrid badge Real Madrid
VS

Final result1–0

Santiago Bernabéu Stadium

Match Finished

Villarreal badge Villarreal
OUR RECOMMENDATIONCombo Double chance : Real Madrid or draw and +1.5 goalsSelection confidence: 90%
45%
HOME WIN
Real MadridProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
10%
AWAY WIN
VillarrealProbability
GOALS MARKET+1.5Total goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Real Madrid
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : Real Madrid or draw and +1.5 goals

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorReal MadridVillarreal
Form60.0%40.0%
Attack57.0%43.0%
Defence57.0%43.0%
Poisson80.0%20.0%
H2H93.0%7.0%
Goals68.0%32.0%
Total69.2%30.8%

Team form and goal analysis

Real Madrid

Recent form (last 5): W L W W L

Average goals scored: 2.60 per match.

Villarreal

Recent form (last 5): L L L W W

Average goals scored: 1.90 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Villarreal 0–2 Real Madrid (24 Jan 2026)
  2. Real Madrid 3–1 Villarreal (04 Oct 2025)
  3. Villarreal 1–2 Real Madrid (15 Mar 2025)
  4. Real Madrid 2–0 Villarreal (05 Oct 2024)
  5. Villarreal 4–4 Real Madrid (19 May 2024)
  6. Real Madrid 4–1 Villarreal (17 Dec 2023)
  7. Real Madrid 2–3 Villarreal (08 Apr 2023)
  8. Villarreal 2–3 Real Madrid (19 Jan 2023)
  9. Villarreal 2–1 Real Madrid (07 Jan 2023)
  10. Villarreal 0–0 Real Madrid (12 Feb 2022)

Real Madrid recent matches

Scores below are shown as Real Madrid goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20 Sep 2026Atletico MadridAway1–2Lost
15 Sep 2026ElcheAway3–2Won
12 Sep 2026Rayo VallecanoHome4–1Won
08 Sep 2026InterHome2–1Won
04 Sep 2026Real BetisAway0–1Lost
Real Madrid detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Real Madrid performance

Fixtures played home3
Fixtures played away4
Fixtures played total7
Wins home3
Wins away2
Wins total5
Draws home0
Draws away0
Draws total0
Losses home0
Losses away2
Losses total2
Biggest streak wins3
Biggest streak draws0
Biggest streak losses1
Biggest wins home4-0
Biggest wins away2-3
Biggest losses away2-1
Biggest goals for home4
Biggest goals for away3
Biggest goals against home1
Biggest goals against away2
Clean sheet home1
Clean sheet away0
Clean sheet total1
Failed to score home0
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total1
Penalty scored total1
Penalty scored percentage50.00%
Penalty missed total1
Penalty missed percentage50.00%
Penalty total2

Real Madrid goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home12
Goals for total away6
Goals for total18
Goals for average home4.00
Goals for average away1.50
Goals for average total2.60
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total2
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage12.50%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total3
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage18.75%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total3
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage18.75%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total1
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage6.25%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage6.25%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total6
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage37.50%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over6
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over5
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under2
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over4
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under3
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over3
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under4
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under7
Goals against total home2
Goals against total away6
Goals against total8
Goals against average home0.70
Goals against average away1.50
Goals against average total1.10
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total3
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage30.00%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total1
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage10.00%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total3
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage30.00%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage10.00%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total2
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage20.00%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over6
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over2
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under5
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under7

Villarreal recent matches

Scores below are shown as Villarreal goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20 Sep 2026LevanteHome3–1Won
17 Sep 2026MalagaAway3–1Won
14 Sep 2026Real BetisHome1–2Lost
08 Sep 2026Borussia DortmundAway2–3Lost
05 Sep 2026Deportivo La CorunaHome2–3Lost
Villarreal detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Villarreal performance

Fixtures played home3
Fixtures played away4
Fixtures played total7
Wins home1
Wins away1
Wins total2
Draws home0
Draws away2
Draws total2
Losses home2
Losses away1
Losses total3
Biggest streak wins0
Biggest streak draws2
Biggest streak losses3
Biggest wins home3-1
Biggest wins away1-3
Biggest losses home2-3
Biggest losses away1-0
Biggest goals for home3
Biggest goals for away3
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away2
Clean sheet home0
Clean sheet away0
Clean sheet total0
Failed to score home0
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total1
Penalty scored total3
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total3

Villarreal goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home6
Goals for total away7
Goals for total13
Goals for average home2.00
Goals for average away1.80
Goals for average total1.90
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total2
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage16.67%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total5
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage41.67%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total1
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage8.33%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage8.33%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total3
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage25.00%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over6
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over5
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under2
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under5
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under7
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under7
Goals against total home6
Goals against total away6
Goals against total12
Goals against average home2.00
Goals against average away1.50
Goals against average total1.70
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage7.69%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total1
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage7.69%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total6
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage46.15%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total1
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage7.69%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total4
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage30.77%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over7
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under0
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over4
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under3
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under6
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under7

Goal markets and betting-tip context

The recorded goals selection for this fixture is +1.5. Read it alongside both teams' scoring averages and the goal analysis above.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Real Madrid predictions and analysis, Villarreal match tips, or more La Liga predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.