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Arouca vs Nacional Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Primeira Liga, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Primeira Liga

Arouca badge Arouca
VS

Final result1–0

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Match Finished

Nacional badge Nacional
OUR RECOMMENDATIONWinner : AroucaSelection confidence: 45%
45%
HOME WIN
AroucaProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
10%
AWAY WIN
NacionalProbability
GOALS MARKETNot suppliedTotal goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Arouca
Betting advice
Winner : Arouca

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorAroucaNacional
Form73.0%27.0%
Attack56.0%44.0%
Defence75.0%25.0%
Poisson86.0%14.0%
H2H80.0%20.0%
Goals73.0%27.0%
Total73.8%26.2%

Team form and goal analysis

Arouca

Recent form (last 5): D L D W W

Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.

Nacional

Recent form (last 5): L L L L W

Average goals scored: 1.10 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Arouca 3–0 Nacional (21 Feb 2026)
  2. Nacional 1–2 Arouca (20 Sep 2025)
  3. Nacional 1–2 Arouca (01 Feb 2025)
  4. Arouca 1–0 Nacional (25 Aug 2024)
  5. Arouca 0–1 Nacional (06 May 2018)
  6. Nacional 2–2 Arouca (22 Dec 2017)
  7. Nacional 1–1 Arouca (28 Jan 2017)
  8. Arouca 2–0 Nacional (21 Aug 2016)
  9. Arouca 3–0 Nacional (01 May 2016)
  10. Nacional 2–2 Arouca (02 Jan 2016)

Arouca recent matches

Scores below are shown as Arouca goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
24 Oct 2026AlvercaAway1–0Won
18 Oct 2026CF Os BelenensesAway4–3Won
11 Oct 2026EstrelaHome1–0Won
19 Sep 2026Sporting CPAway2–2Draw
13 Sep 2026Santa ClaraHome1–2Lost
Arouca detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Arouca performance

Fixtures played home4
Fixtures played away5
Fixtures played total9
Wins home3
Wins away2
Wins total5
Draws home0
Draws away2
Draws total2
Losses home1
Losses away1
Losses total2
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses1
Biggest wins home4-0
Biggest wins away0-1
Biggest losses home1-2
Biggest losses away2-0
Biggest goals for home4
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home2
Biggest goals against away2
Clean sheet home2
Clean sheet away3
Clean sheet total5
Failed to score home0
Failed to score away2
Failed to score total2
Penalty scored total1
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total1

Arouca goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home8
Goals for total away4
Goals for total12
Goals for average home2.00
Goals for average away0.80
Goals for average total1.30
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage9.09%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total2
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage18.18%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total2
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage18.18%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total3
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage27.27%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total3
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage27.27%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over7
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under2
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over3
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under6
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under8
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under8
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under9
Goals against total home3
Goals against total away4
Goals against total7
Goals against average home0.80
Goals against average away0.80
Goals against average total0.80
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage12.50%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage50.00%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total1
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage12.50%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage12.50%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total1
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage12.50%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over4
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under5
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under6
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under9
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under9
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under9

Nacional recent matches

Scores below are shown as Nacional goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
25 Oct 2026SC BragaHome1–0Won
17 Oct 2026SanjoanenseAway0–1Lost
11 Oct 2026Rio AveAway2–3Lost
19 Sep 2026FamalicaoHome0–4Lost
12 Sep 2026AlvercaHome1–3Lost
Nacional detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Nacional performance

Fixtures played home5
Fixtures played away4
Fixtures played total9
Wins home2
Wins away0
Wins total2
Draws home0
Draws away1
Draws total1
Losses home3
Losses away3
Losses total6
Biggest streak wins1
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses6
Biggest wins home2-0
Biggest losses home0-4
Biggest losses away2-0
Biggest goals for home2
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home4
Biggest goals against away3
Clean sheet home2
Clean sheet away0
Clean sheet total2
Failed to score home1
Failed to score away2
Failed to score total3
Penalty scored total1
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total1

Nacional goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home6
Goals for total away4
Goals for total10
Goals for average home1.20
Goals for average away1.00
Goals for average total1.10
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage10.00%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total1
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage10.00%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total3
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage30.00%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total1
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage10.00%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage20.00%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total2
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage20.00%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over6
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under3
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over4
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under5
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under9
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under9
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under9
Goals against total home10
Goals against total away8
Goals against total18
Goals against average home2.00
Goals against average away2.00
Goals against average total2.00
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total3
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage16.67%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total2
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage11.11%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total7
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage38.89%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total2
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage11.11%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total3
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage16.67%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total1
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage5.56%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over7
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under2
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over6
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under3
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over4
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under5
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under8
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under9

Goal markets and betting-tip context

No goals selection is currently recorded for this fixture. The available team form and scoring data can still help explain the match outlook.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Arouca predictions and analysis, Nacional match tips, or more Primeira Liga predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.