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Arouca vs Estrela Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Primeira Liga, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Primeira Liga

Arouca badge Arouca
VS

Final result1–0

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Match Finished

Estrela badge Estrela
OUR RECOMMENDATIONCombo Double chance : Arouca or draw and +1.5 goalsSelection confidence: 70%
35%
HOME WIN
AroucaProbability
35%
DRAW
DrawProbability
30%
AWAY WIN
EstrelaProbability
GOALS MARKET+1.5Total goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Arouca
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : Arouca or draw and +1.5 goals

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorAroucaEstrela
Form38.0%62.0%
Attack33.0%67.0%
Defence59.0%41.0%
Poisson69.0%31.0%
H2H50.0%50.0%
Goals44.0%56.0%
Total48.8%51.2%

Team form and goal analysis

Arouca

Recent form (last 5): L W D L D

Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.

Estrela

Recent form (last 5): W D W D L

Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Arouca 1–0 Estrela (19 Apr 2026)
  2. Estrela 3–1 Arouca (07 Dec 2025)
  3. Arouca 1–0 Estrela (19 Apr 2025)
  4. Estrela 2–1 Arouca (09 Dec 2024)
  5. Arouca 0–0 Estrela (05 May 2024)
  6. Estrela 1–4 Arouca (28 Dec 2023)

Arouca recent matches

Scores below are shown as Arouca goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
19 Sep 2026Sporting CPAway2–2Draw
13 Sep 2026Santa ClaraHome1–2Lost
07 Sep 2026EstorilAway0–0Draw
29 Aug 2026MaritimoHome2–1Won
23 Aug 2026FC PortoAway0–2Lost
Arouca detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Arouca performance

Fixtures played home3
Fixtures played away4
Fixtures played total7
Wins home2
Wins away1
Wins total3
Draws home0
Draws away2
Draws total2
Losses home1
Losses away1
Losses total2
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses1
Biggest wins home4-0
Biggest wins away0-1
Biggest losses home1-2
Biggest losses away2-0
Biggest goals for home4
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home2
Biggest goals against away2
Clean sheet home1
Clean sheet away2
Clean sheet total3
Failed to score home0
Failed to score away2
Failed to score total2
Penalty scored total1
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total1

Arouca goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home7
Goals for total away3
Goals for total10
Goals for average home2.30
Goals for average away0.80
Goals for average total1.40
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total1
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage11.11%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total2
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage22.22%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total3
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage33.33%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total3
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage33.33%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over5
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under2
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over3
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under4
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under6
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under6
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under7
Goals against total home3
Goals against total away4
Goals against total7
Goals against average home1.00
Goals against average away1.00
Goals against average total1.00
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage12.50%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage50.00%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total1
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage12.50%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage12.50%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total1
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage12.50%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over4
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under3
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under4
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under7

Estrela recent matches

Scores below are shown as Estrela goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
20 Sep 2026Academico ViseuHome0–2Lost
14 Sep 2026Rio AveAway3–3Draw
10 Sep 2026SC BragaHome2–1Won
05 Sep 2026FamalicaoHome2–2Draw
30 Aug 2026NacionalAway3–2Won
Estrela detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Estrela performance

Fixtures played home4
Fixtures played away3
Fixtures played total7
Wins home1
Wins away1
Wins total2
Draws home2
Draws away2
Draws total4
Losses home1
Losses away0
Losses total1
Biggest streak wins1
Biggest streak draws2
Biggest streak losses0
Biggest wins home2-1
Biggest wins away2-3
Biggest losses home0-2
Biggest goals for home2
Biggest goals for away3
Biggest goals against home2
Biggest goals against away3
Clean sheet home0
Clean sheet away0
Clean sheet total0
Failed to score home1
Failed to score away0
Failed to score total1
Penalty scored total1
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total1

Estrela goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home6
Goals for total away8
Goals for total14
Goals for average home1.50
Goals for average away2.70
Goals for average total2.00
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total1
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage7.69%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total2
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage15.38%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage30.77%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total5
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage38.46%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total1
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage7.69%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over6
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over6
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under1
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under5
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under7
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under7
Goals against total home7
Goals against total away7
Goals against total14
Goals against average home1.80
Goals against average away2.30
Goals against average total2.00
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total4
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage26.67%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total1
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage6.67%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total1
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage6.67%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage26.67%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage13.33%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total3
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage20.00%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over7
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under0
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over6
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under1
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under6
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under7

Goal markets and betting-tip context

The recorded goals selection for this fixture is +1.5. Read it alongside both teams' scoring averages and the goal analysis above.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Arouca predictions and analysis, Estrela match tips, or more Primeira Liga predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.