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Toluca vs Monterrey Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Liga MX, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

Record updated: .

Liga MX

Toluca badge Toluca
VS

Estadio Nemesio Diez

Monterrey badge Monterrey
OUR RECOMMENDATIONCombo Double chance : Toluca or draw and +1.5 goalsSelection confidence: 90%
45%
HOME WIN
TolucaProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
10%
AWAY WIN
MonterreyProbability
GOALS MARKET+1.5Total goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Toluca
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : Toluca or draw and +1.5 goals

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorTolucaMonterrey
Form33.0%67.0%
Attack44.0%56.0%
Defence44.0%56.0%
Poisson59.0%41.0%
H2H60.0%40.0%
Goals58.0%42.0%
Total49.7%50.3%

Team form and goal analysis

Toluca

Recent form (last 5): L D D D D

Average goals scored: 2.10 per match.

Monterrey

Recent form (last 5): D W W L D

Average goals scored: 1.90 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Monterrey 2–1 Toluca (04 Oct 2026)
  2. Toluca 2–0 Monterrey (07 Sep 2026)
  3. Monterrey 0–1 Toluca (11 Jan 2026)
  4. Toluca 3–2 Monterrey (07 Dec 2025)
  5. Monterrey 1–0 Toluca (04 Dec 2025)
  6. Toluca 6–2 Monterrey (25 Sep 2025)
  7. Toluca 2–1 Monterrey (11 May 2025)
  8. Monterrey 3–2 Toluca (08 May 2025)
  9. Toluca 1–1 Monterrey (19 Jan 2025)
  10. Monterrey 1–2 Toluca (01 Sep 2024)

Toluca recent matches

Scores below are shown as Toluca goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01 Nov 2026Club AmericaAway2–2Draw
25 Oct 2026LeonAway1–1Draw
22 Oct 2026Club TijuanaHome2–2Draw
18 Oct 2026Atletico San LuisHome1–1Draw
10 Oct 2026Tigres UANLAway2–3Lost
Toluca detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Toluca performance

Fixtures played home7
Fixtures played away8
Fixtures played total15
Wins home3
Wins away3
Wins total6
Draws home2
Draws away4
Draws total6
Losses home2
Losses away1
Losses total3
Biggest streak wins4
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses1
Biggest wins home4-0
Biggest wins away0-2
Biggest losses home2-3
Biggest losses away3-2
Biggest goals for home5
Biggest goals for away3
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away3
Clean sheet home1
Clean sheet away3
Clean sheet total4
Failed to score home0
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total1
Penalty scored total4
Penalty scored percentage80.00%
Penalty missed total1
Penalty missed percentage20.00%
Penalty total5

Toluca goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home18
Goals for total away13
Goals for total31
Goals for average home2.60
Goals for average away1.60
Goals for average total2.10
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total2
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage7.41%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total5
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage18.52%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total6
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage22.22%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage14.81%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total6
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage22.22%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total4
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage14.81%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over14
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over10
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under5
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over4
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under11
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under13
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under14
Goals against total home11
Goals against total away10
Goals against total21
Goals against average home1.60
Goals against average away1.30
Goals against average total1.40
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total3
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage12.00%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total6
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage24.00%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total5
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage20.00%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total5
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage20.00%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total5
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage20.00%
Goals against minute · 91-105 · total1
Goals against minute · 91-105 · percentage4.00%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over11
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under4
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over7
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under8
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under12
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under15
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under15

Monterrey recent matches

Scores below are shown as Monterrey goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
01 Nov 2026Club TijuanaHome3–3Draw
25 Oct 2026Guadalajara ChivasHome0–1Lost
22 Oct 2026PueblaAway4–1Won
19 Oct 2026CF PachucaHome2–1Won
11 Oct 2026Club AmericaAway1–1Draw
Monterrey detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Monterrey performance

Fixtures played home8
Fixtures played away6
Fixtures played total14
Wins home4
Wins away2
Wins total6
Draws home2
Draws away1
Draws total3
Losses home2
Losses away3
Losses total5
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses2
Biggest wins home6-1
Biggest wins away1-4
Biggest losses home1-3
Biggest losses away4-2
Biggest goals for home6
Biggest goals for away4
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away4
Clean sheet home2
Clean sheet away1
Clean sheet total3
Failed to score home2
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total3
Penalty scored total3
Penalty scored percentage60.00%
Penalty missed total2
Penalty missed percentage40.00%
Penalty total5

Monterrey goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home16
Goals for total away10
Goals for total26
Goals for average home2.00
Goals for average away1.70
Goals for average total1.90
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total4
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage15.38%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total9
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage34.62%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total5
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage19.23%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total1
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage3.85%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total4
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage15.38%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total3
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage11.54%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over11
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under3
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over7
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under7
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over4
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under10
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under12
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under13
Goals against total home11
Goals against total away10
Goals against total21
Goals against average home1.40
Goals against average away1.70
Goals against average total1.50
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total4
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage19.05%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total1
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage4.76%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total4
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage19.05%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage19.05%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total3
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage14.29%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total5
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage23.81%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over11
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under3
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over6
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under8
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under11
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under13
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under14

Goal markets and betting-tip context

The recorded goals selection for this fixture is +1.5. Read it alongside both teams' scoring averages and the goal analysis above.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Toluca predictions and analysis, Monterrey match tips, or more Liga MX predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.