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Leon vs Toluca Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Liga MX, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Liga MX

Leon badge Leon
VS

Final result1–1

Estadio León

Match Finished

Toluca badge Toluca
OUR RECOMMENDATIONDouble chance : draw or TolucaSelection confidence: 90%
10%
HOME WIN
LeonProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
45%
AWAY WIN
TolucaProbability
GOALS MARKETNot suppliedTotal goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Toluca
Betting advice
Double chance : draw or Toluca

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorLeonToluca
Form62.0%38.0%
Attack50.0%50.0%
Defence56.0%44.0%
Poisson45.0%55.0%
H2H15.0%85.0%
Goals35.0%65.0%
Total43.8%56.2%

Team form and goal analysis

Leon

Recent form (last 5): D W D L W

Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.

Toluca

Recent form (last 5): W L D L D

Average goals scored: 2.20 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Toluca 2–0 Leon (03 Sep 2026)
  2. Toluca 4–1 Leon (26 Apr 2026)
  3. Leon 2–4 Toluca (05 Oct 2025)
  4. Leon 3–3 Toluca (09 Feb 2025)
  5. Toluca 2–2 Leon (03 Nov 2024)
  6. Toluca 4–1 Leon (04 Feb 2024)
  7. Leon 1–0 Toluca (22 Oct 2023)
  8. Toluca 0–0 Leon (29 Jan 2023)
  9. Leon 0–1 Toluca (27 Jul 2022)
  10. Leon 4–4 Toluca (02 May 2022)

Leon recent matches

Scores below are shown as Leon goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
21 Oct 2026Tigres UANLAway2–0Won
18 Oct 2026Club AmericaHome3–5Lost
10 Oct 2026PueblaAway1–1Draw
28 Sep 2026FC JuarezHome2–1Won
21 Sep 2026Club QueretaroAway1–1Draw
Leon detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Leon performance

Fixtures played home6
Fixtures played away7
Fixtures played total13
Wins home4
Wins away2
Wins total6
Draws home0
Draws away3
Draws total3
Losses home2
Losses away2
Losses total4
Biggest streak wins3
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses2
Biggest wins home2-0
Biggest wins away0-2
Biggest losses home3-5
Biggest losses away3-1
Biggest goals for home3
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home5
Biggest goals against away3
Clean sheet home3
Clean sheet away1
Clean sheet total4
Failed to score home0
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total1
Penalty scored total3
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total3

Leon goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home12
Goals for total away8
Goals for total20
Goals for average home2.00
Goals for average away1.10
Goals for average total1.50
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage21.05%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total2
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage10.53%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage21.05%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage10.53%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total7
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage36.84%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over12
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over7
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under6
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under12
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under13
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under13
Goals against total home9
Goals against total away8
Goals against total17
Goals against average home1.50
Goals against average away1.10
Goals against average total1.30
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage5.56%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total1
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage5.56%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total2
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage11.11%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage22.22%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total3
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage16.67%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total7
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage38.89%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over9
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under4
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under10
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under10
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under12
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under12

Toluca recent matches

Scores below are shown as Toluca goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
18 Oct 2026Atletico San LuisHome1–1Draw
10 Oct 2026Tigres UANLAway2–3Lost
27 Sep 2026Cruz AzulAway3–3Draw
21 Sep 2026Santos LagunaHome2–3Lost
16 Sep 2026PueblaAway1–0Won
Toluca detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Toluca performance

Fixtures played home6
Fixtures played away6
Fixtures played total12
Wins home3
Wins away3
Wins total6
Draws home1
Draws away2
Draws total3
Losses home2
Losses away1
Losses total3
Biggest streak wins4
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses1
Biggest wins home4-0
Biggest wins away0-2
Biggest losses home2-3
Biggest losses away3-2
Biggest goals for home5
Biggest goals for away3
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away3
Clean sheet home1
Clean sheet away3
Clean sheet total4
Failed to score home0
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total1
Penalty scored total4
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total4

Toluca goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home16
Goals for total away10
Goals for total26
Goals for average home2.70
Goals for average away1.70
Goals for average total2.20
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total2
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage9.09%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total5
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage22.73%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total4
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage18.18%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage18.18%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total4
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage18.18%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total3
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage13.64%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over11
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over8
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under4
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over4
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under8
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under10
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under11
Goals against total home9
Goals against total away7
Goals against total16
Goals against average home1.50
Goals against average away1.20
Goals against average total1.30
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total2
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage10.00%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total5
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage25.00%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total5
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage25.00%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total3
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage15.00%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total5
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage25.00%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over8
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under4
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over5
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under9
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under12
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under12

Goal markets and betting-tip context

No goals selection is currently recorded for this fixture. The available team form and scoring data can still help explain the match outlook.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Leon predictions and analysis, Toluca match tips, or more Liga MX predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.