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Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Liga de Expansión MX, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Liga de Expansión MX

Leones Negros UDG badge Leones Negros UDG
VS

Final result3–1

Estadio Jalisco

Match Finished

Tepatitlán badge Tepatitlán
OUR RECOMMENDATIONCombo Winner : Leones Negros UDG and +1.5 goalsSelection confidence: 45%
45%
HOME WIN
Leones Negros UDGProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
10%
AWAY WIN
TepatitlánProbability
GOALS MARKET+1.5Total goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Leones Negros UDG
Betting advice
Combo Winner : Leones Negros UDG and +1.5 goals

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorLeones Negros UDGTepatitlán
Form71.0%29.0%
Attack71.0%29.0%
Defence65.0%35.0%
Poisson91.0%9.0%
H2H50.0%50.0%
Goals50.0%50.0%
Total66.3%33.7%

Team form and goal analysis

Leones Negros UDG

Recent form (last 5): W W D L W

Average goals scored: 2.20 per match.

Tepatitlán

Recent form (last 5): W D L L L

Average goals scored: 0.70 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Leones Negros UDG 0–0 Tepatitlán (15 Feb 2026)
  2. Tepatitlán 1–1 Leones Negros UDG (08 Sep 2025)
  3. Leones Negros UDG 2–1 Tepatitlán (27 Apr 2025)
  4. Tepatitlán 2–1 Leones Negros UDG (25 Apr 2025)
  5. Tepatitlán 1–1 Leones Negros UDG (01 Mar 2025)
  6. Leones Negros UDG 1–0 Tepatitlán (16 Sep 2024)
  7. Leones Negros UDG 3–2 Tepatitlán (11 Apr 2024)
  8. Tepatitlán 0–0 Leones Negros UDG (13 Aug 2023)
  9. Leones Negros UDG 3–1 Tepatitlán (15 Jul 2023)
  10. Tepatitlán 0–1 Leones Negros UDG (28 Apr 2023)

Leones Negros UDG recent matches

Scores below are shown as Leones Negros UDG goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
25 Oct 2026Mineros de ZacatecasAway2–0Won
18 Oct 2026Alebrijes de OaxacaHome1–2Lost
11 Oct 2026Venados FCAway1–1Draw
04 Oct 2026DoradosHome6–3Won
26 Sep 2026Cruz Azul HidalgoAway2–1Won
Leones Negros UDG detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Leones Negros UDG performance

Fixtures played home6
Fixtures played away8
Fixtures played total14
Wins home2
Wins away6
Wins total8
Draws home2
Draws away1
Draws total3
Losses home2
Losses away1
Losses total3
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses1
Biggest wins home4-0
Biggest wins away2-4
Biggest losses home1-3
Biggest losses away2-0
Biggest goals for home6
Biggest goals for away4
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away2
Clean sheet home1
Clean sheet away2
Clean sheet total3
Failed to score home0
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total1
Penalty scored total0
Penalty scored percentage0%
Penalty missed total2
Penalty missed percentage100.00%
Penalty total2

Leones Negros UDG goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home15
Goals for total away16
Goals for total31
Goals for average home2.50
Goals for average away2.00
Goals for average total2.20
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total9
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage31.03%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage13.79%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total4
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage13.79%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total2
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage6.90%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total3
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage10.34%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total7
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage24.14%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over13
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over9
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under5
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over4
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under10
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over3
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under11
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under13
Goals against total home11
Goals against total away8
Goals against total19
Goals against average home1.80
Goals against average away1.00
Goals against average total1.40
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total5
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage23.81%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total3
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage14.29%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage19.05%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage9.52%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total7
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage33.33%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over11
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under3
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over6
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under8
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over2
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under12
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under14
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under14

Tepatitlán recent matches

Scores below are shown as Tepatitlán goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
24 Oct 2026CancúnHome0–4Lost
18 Oct 2026PiratasAway0–3Lost
14 Oct 2026TapatíoAway1–4Lost
10 Oct 2026MonarcasHome1–1Draw
03 Oct 2026CDS Tampico MaderoHome3–1Won
Tepatitlán detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Tepatitlán performance

Fixtures played home8
Fixtures played away6
Fixtures played total14
Wins home2
Wins away0
Wins total2
Draws home1
Draws away0
Draws total1
Losses home5
Losses away6
Losses total11
Biggest streak wins1
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses4
Biggest wins home3-1
Biggest losses home0-5
Biggest losses away6-0
Biggest goals for home3
Biggest goals for away1
Biggest goals against home5
Biggest goals against away6
Clean sheet home0
Clean sheet away0
Clean sheet total0
Failed to score home4
Failed to score away4
Failed to score total8
Penalty scored total1
Penalty scored percentage50.00%
Penalty missed total1
Penalty missed percentage50.00%
Penalty total2

Tepatitlán goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home8
Goals for total away2
Goals for total10
Goals for average home1.00
Goals for average away0.30
Goals for average total0.70
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total2
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage22.22%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total3
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage33.33%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total3
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage33.33%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage11.11%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over6
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under8
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under12
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under12
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under14
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under14
Goals against total home19
Goals against total away22
Goals against total41
Goals against average home2.40
Goals against average away3.70
Goals against average total2.90
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total3
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage7.14%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total3
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage7.14%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total8
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage19.05%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total7
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage16.67%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total6
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage14.29%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total15
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage35.71%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over14
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under0
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over9
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under5
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over8
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under6
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over6
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under8
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under11

Goal markets and betting-tip context

The recorded goals selection for this fixture is +1.5. Read it alongside both teams' scoring averages and the goal analysis above.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Leones Negros UDG predictions and analysis, Tepatitlán match tips, or more Liga de Expansión MX predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.