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Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Liga de Expansión MX, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Liga de Expansión MX

Leones Negros UDG badge Leones Negros UDG
VS

Final result1–2

Estadio Jalisco

Match Finished

Alebrijes de Oaxaca badge Alebrijes de Oaxaca
OUR RECOMMENDATIONCombo Winner : Leones Negros UDG and +1.5 goalsSelection confidence: 45%
45%
HOME WIN
Leones Negros UDGProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
10%
AWAY WIN
Alebrijes de OaxacaProbability
GOALS MARKET+1.5Total goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Leones Negros UDG
Betting advice
Combo Winner : Leones Negros UDG and +1.5 goals

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorLeones Negros UDGAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Form57.0%43.0%
Attack73.0%27.0%
Defence55.0%45.0%
Poisson80.0%20.0%
H2H62.0%38.0%
Goals60.0%40.0%
Total64.5%35.5%

Team form and goal analysis

Leones Negros UDG

Recent form (last 5): D L W W D

Average goals scored: 2.30 per match.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Recent form (last 5): W L L L W

Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Leones Negros UDG (28 Mar 2026)
  2. Leones Negros UDG 0–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (18 Oct 2025)
  3. Leones Negros UDG 3–2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (16 Mar 2025)
  4. Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–2 Leones Negros UDG (30 Sep 2024)
  5. Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0–3 Leones Negros UDG (15 Feb 2024)
  6. Leones Negros UDG 5–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (04 Aug 2023)
  7. Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–2 Leones Negros UDG (16 Mar 2023)
  8. Leones Negros UDG 0–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (26 Jun 2022)
  9. Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Leones Negros UDG (20 Jan 2022)
  10. Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca (29 Aug 2021)

Leones Negros UDG recent matches

Scores below are shown as Leones Negros UDG goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
11 Oct 2026Venados FCAway1–1Draw
04 Oct 2026DoradosHome6–3Won
26 Sep 2026Cruz Azul HidalgoAway2–1Won
20 Sep 2026MonarcasAway0–2Lost
13 Sep 2026CA La PazHome2–2Draw
Leones Negros UDG detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Leones Negros UDG performance

Fixtures played home5
Fixtures played away7
Fixtures played total12
Wins home2
Wins away5
Wins total7
Draws home2
Draws away1
Draws total3
Losses home1
Losses away1
Losses total2
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses1
Biggest wins home4-0
Biggest wins away2-4
Biggest losses home1-3
Biggest losses away2-0
Biggest goals for home6
Biggest goals for away4
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away2
Clean sheet home1
Clean sheet away1
Clean sheet total2
Failed to score home0
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total1
Penalty scored total0
Penalty scored percentage0%
Penalty missed total2
Penalty missed percentage100.00%
Penalty total2

Leones Negros UDG goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home14
Goals for total away14
Goals for total28
Goals for average home2.80
Goals for average away2.00
Goals for average total2.30
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total8
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage30.77%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage15.38%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total3
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage11.54%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total2
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage7.69%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage7.69%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total7
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage26.92%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over11
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over8
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under4
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over4
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under8
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over3
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under9
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under11
Goals against total home9
Goals against total away8
Goals against total17
Goals against average home1.80
Goals against average away1.10
Goals against average total1.40
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total5
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage26.32%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total2
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage10.53%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage21.05%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage5.26%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total7
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage36.84%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over10
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under2
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over5
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over2
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under10
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under12
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under12

Alebrijes de Oaxaca recent matches

Scores below are shown as Alebrijes de Oaxaca goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09 Oct 2026Correcaminos UatHome2–1Won
04 Oct 2026PiratasAway0–4Lost
25 Sep 2026CA La PazHome1–3Lost
20 Sep 2026CancúnAway0–3Lost
11 Sep 2026DurangoHome1–0Won
Alebrijes de Oaxaca detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca performance

Fixtures played home6
Fixtures played away6
Fixtures played total12
Wins home3
Wins away1
Wins total4
Draws home1
Draws away0
Draws total1
Losses home2
Losses away5
Losses total7
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses3
Biggest wins home2-1
Biggest wins away0-2
Biggest losses home1-3
Biggest losses away4-0
Biggest goals for home2
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away4
Clean sheet home2
Clean sheet away1
Clean sheet total3
Failed to score home1
Failed to score away3
Failed to score total4
Penalty scored total3
Penalty scored percentage75.00%
Penalty missed total1
Penalty missed percentage25.00%
Penalty total4

Alebrijes de Oaxaca goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home6
Goals for total away4
Goals for total10
Goals for average home1.00
Goals for average away0.70
Goals for average total0.80
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total1
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage10.00%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage40.00%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage20.00%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total3
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage30.00%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over8
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under4
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under10
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under12
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under12
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under12
Goals against total home7
Goals against total away16
Goals against total23
Goals against average home1.20
Goals against average away2.70
Goals against average total1.90
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage4.35%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total5
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage21.74%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total1
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage4.35%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total2
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage8.70%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total4
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage17.39%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total10
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage43.48%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over9
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under3
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over7
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under5
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over5
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over2
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under10
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under12

Goal markets and betting-tip context

The recorded goals selection for this fixture is +1.5. Read it alongside both teams' scoring averages and the goal analysis above.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Leones Negros UDG predictions and analysis, Alebrijes de Oaxaca match tips, or more Liga de Expansión MX predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.