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QPR vs Derby Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Championship, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Championship

QPR badge QPR
VS

Final result4–1

Loftus Road

Match Finished

Derby badge Derby
OUR RECOMMENDATIONCombo Double chance : QPR or draw and -3.5 goalsSelection confidence: 90%
45%
HOME WIN
QPRProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
10%
AWAY WIN
DerbyProbability
GOALS MARKET-3.5Total goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
QPR
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : QPR or draw and -3.5 goals

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorQPRDerby
Form67.0%33.0%
Attack57.0%43.0%
Defence62.0%38.0%
Poisson54.0%46.0%
H2H40.0%60.0%
Goals54.0%46.0%
Total55.7%44.3%

Team form and goal analysis

QPR

Recent form (last 5): L D D D D

Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.

Derby

Recent form (last 5): L L L D D

Average goals scored: 0.90 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. QPR 2–3 Derby (25 Apr 2026)
  2. Derby 1–0 QPR (25 Oct 2025)
  3. QPR 4–0 Derby (14 Feb 2025)
  4. Derby 2–0 QPR (05 Oct 2024)
  5. QPR 1–0 Derby (18 Apr 2022)
  6. Derby 1–2 QPR (29 Nov 2021)
  7. QPR 0–1 Derby (23 Jan 2021)
  8. Derby 0–1 QPR (04 Nov 2020)
  9. QPR 2–1 Derby (25 Feb 2020)
  10. Derby 1–1 QPR (30 Nov 2019)

QPR recent matches

Scores below are shown as QPR goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
09 Oct 2026West HamAway1–1Draw
19 Sep 2026PrestonHome2–2Draw
12 Sep 2026West BromAway1–1Draw
09 Sep 2026CharltonAway0–0Draw
05 Sep 2026MiddlesbroughHome0–1Lost
QPR detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

QPR performance

Fixtures played home4
Fixtures played away5
Fixtures played total9
Wins home1
Wins away2
Wins total3
Draws home2
Draws away3
Draws total5
Losses home1
Losses away0
Losses total1
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses1
Biggest wins home2-1
Biggest wins away1-3
Biggest losses home0-1
Biggest goals for home2
Biggest goals for away3
Biggest goals against home2
Biggest goals against away1
Clean sheet home1
Clean sheet away1
Clean sheet total2
Failed to score home2
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total3
Penalty scored total1
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total1

QPR goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home4
Goals for total away7
Goals for total11
Goals for average home1.00
Goals for average away1.40
Goals for average total1.20
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total1
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage10.00%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total4
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage40.00%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total2
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage20.00%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage20.00%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total1
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage10.00%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over6
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under3
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over4
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under5
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under8
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under9
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under9
Goals against total home4
Goals against total away4
Goals against total8
Goals against average home1.00
Goals against average away0.80
Goals against average total0.90
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total2
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage22.22%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total2
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage22.22%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total2
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage22.22%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total1
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage11.11%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage22.22%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over7
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under2
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under8
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under9
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under9
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under9

Derby recent matches

Scores below are shown as Derby goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
10 Oct 2026WrexhamHome1–1Draw
19 Sep 2026BurnleyAway1–1Draw
12 Sep 2026BirminghamHome1–2Lost
09 Sep 2026West BromHome0–1Lost
05 Sep 2026West HamAway0–3Lost
Derby detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Derby performance

Fixtures played home5
Fixtures played away4
Fixtures played total9
Wins home0
Wins away1
Wins total1
Draws home2
Draws away1
Draws total3
Losses home3
Losses away2
Losses total5
Biggest streak wins1
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses3
Biggest wins away0-2
Biggest losses home0-3
Biggest losses away3-0
Biggest goals for home2
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away3
Clean sheet home0
Clean sheet away1
Clean sheet total1
Failed to score home2
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total3
Penalty scored total0
Penalty scored percentage0%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total0

Derby goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home4
Goals for total away4
Goals for total8
Goals for average home0.80
Goals for average away1.00
Goals for average total0.90
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage12.50%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total3
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage37.50%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total1
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage12.50%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total1
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage12.50%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage12.50%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total1
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage12.50%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over6
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under3
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under7
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under9
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under9
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under9
Goals against total home9
Goals against total away6
Goals against total15
Goals against average home1.80
Goals against average away1.50
Goals against average total1.70
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total2
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage13.33%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total2
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage13.33%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total4
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage26.67%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total2
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage13.33%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total5
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage33.33%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over8
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over5
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under4
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over2
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under9
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under9

Goal markets and betting-tip context

The recorded goals selection for this fixture is -3.5. Read it alongside both teams' scoring averages and the goal analysis above.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore QPR predictions and analysis, Derby match tips, or more Championship predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.