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Millwall vs Derby Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Championship, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Championship

Millwall badge Millwall
VS

Final result4–1

The Den

Match Finished

Derby badge Derby
OUR RECOMMENDATIONDouble chance : Millwall or drawSelection confidence: 90%
45%
HOME WIN
MillwallProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
10%
AWAY WIN
DerbyProbability
GOALS MARKETNot suppliedTotal goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Millwall
Betting advice
Double chance : Millwall or draw

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorMillwallDerby
Form63.0%38.0%
Attack60.0%40.0%
Defence53.0%47.0%
Poisson67.0%33.0%
H2H85.0%15.0%
Goals67.0%33.0%
Total65.8%34.3%

Team form and goal analysis

Millwall

Recent form (last 5): D W L D L

Average goals scored: 1.60 per match.

Derby

Recent form (last 5): D D L L D

Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Millwall 1–0 Derby (10 Mar 2026)
  2. Derby 1–1 Millwall (10 Dec 2025)
  3. Derby 0–1 Millwall (22 Feb 2025)
  4. Millwall 1–1 Derby (19 Oct 2024)
  5. Derby 1–2 Millwall (23 Feb 2022)
  6. Millwall 1–1 Derby (06 Nov 2021)
  7. Derby 0–1 Millwall (13 Mar 2021)
  8. Millwall 0–1 Derby (05 Dec 2020)
  9. Millwall 2–3 Derby (20 Jun 2020)
  10. Derby 0–1 Millwall (14 Dec 2019)

Millwall recent matches

Scores below are shown as Millwall goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
24 Oct 2026PortsmouthAway1–2Lost
17 Oct 2026LincolnHome2–2Draw
13 Oct 2026SwanseaHome0–1Lost
10 Oct 2026PrestonAway1–0Won
19 Sep 2026West HamHome2–2Draw
Millwall detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Millwall performance

Fixtures played home6
Fixtures played away6
Fixtures played total12
Wins home2
Wins away2
Wins total4
Draws home2
Draws away1
Draws total3
Losses home2
Losses away3
Losses total5
Biggest streak wins2
Biggest streak draws2
Biggest streak losses2
Biggest wins home4-0
Biggest wins away0-2
Biggest losses home0-3
Biggest losses away5-1
Biggest goals for home4
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away5
Clean sheet home2
Clean sheet away2
Clean sheet total4
Failed to score home2
Failed to score away0
Failed to score total2
Penalty scored total1
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total1

Millwall goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home11
Goals for total away8
Goals for total19
Goals for average home1.80
Goals for average away1.30
Goals for average total1.60
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total3
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage14.29%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage19.05%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total4
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage19.05%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total3
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage14.29%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage4.76%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total6
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage28.57%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over10
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under2
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over6
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under6
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under10
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under11
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under12
Goals against total home8
Goals against total away12
Goals against total20
Goals against average home1.30
Goals against average away2.00
Goals against average total1.70
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage5.56%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total1
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage5.56%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total3
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage16.67%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage22.22%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total4
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage22.22%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total5
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage27.78%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over8
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under4
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over7
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under5
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under9
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under11
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under11

Derby recent matches

Scores below are shown as Derby goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
24 Oct 2026Sheffield UtdAway1–1Draw
17 Oct 2026Stoke CityHome0–1Lost
14 Oct 2026QPRAway1–4Lost
10 Oct 2026WrexhamHome1–1Draw
19 Sep 2026BurnleyAway1–1Draw
Derby detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Derby performance

Fixtures played home6
Fixtures played away6
Fixtures played total12
Wins home0
Wins away1
Wins total1
Draws home2
Draws away2
Draws total4
Losses home4
Losses away3
Losses total7
Biggest streak wins1
Biggest streak draws2
Biggest streak losses3
Biggest wins away0-2
Biggest losses home0-3
Biggest losses away4-1
Biggest goals for home2
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away4
Clean sheet home0
Clean sheet away1
Clean sheet total1
Failed to score home3
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total4
Penalty scored total0
Penalty scored percentage0%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total0

Derby goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home4
Goals for total away6
Goals for total10
Goals for average home0.70
Goals for average away1.00
Goals for average total0.80
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage10.00%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total3
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage30.00%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total2
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage20.00%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total1
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage10.00%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage10.00%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total2
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage20.00%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over8
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under4
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under10
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under12
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under12
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under12
Goals against total home10
Goals against total away11
Goals against total21
Goals against average home1.70
Goals against average away1.80
Goals against average total1.80
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total2
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage9.52%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage19.05%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total5
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage23.81%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total1
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage4.76%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total3
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage14.29%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total6
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage28.57%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over11
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over6
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under6
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under9
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under11
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under12

Goal markets and betting-tip context

No goals selection is currently recorded for this fixture. The available team form and scoring data can still help explain the match outlook.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Millwall predictions and analysis, Derby match tips, or more Championship predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.