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Derby vs Stoke City Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Championship, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Championship

Derby badge Derby
VS

Final result0–1

Pride Park Stadium

Match Finished

Stoke City badge Stoke City
OUR RECOMMENDATIONDouble chance : draw or Stoke CitySelection confidence: 90%
10%
HOME WIN
DerbyProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
45%
AWAY WIN
Stoke CityProbability
GOALS MARKETNot suppliedTotal goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Stoke City
Betting advice
Double chance : draw or Stoke City

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorDerbyStoke City
Form17.0%83.0%
Attack31.0%69.0%
Defence44.0%56.0%
Poisson34.0%66.0%
H2H50.0%50.0%
Goals58.0%42.0%
Total39.0%61.0%

Team form and goal analysis

Derby

Recent form (last 5): L L D D L

Average goals scored: 0.90 per match.

Stoke City

Recent form (last 5): D W W W L

Average goals scored: 1.70 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Derby 2–0 Stoke City (06 Apr 2026)
  2. Stoke City 3–1 Derby (09 Aug 2025)
  3. Derby 0–0 Stoke City (03 May 2025)
  4. Stoke City 2–1 Derby (02 Nov 2024)
  5. Derby 3–0 Stoke City (22 Jul 2023)
  6. Stoke City 1–2 Derby (30 Dec 2021)
  7. Derby 2–1 Stoke City (18 Sep 2021)
  8. Stoke City 1–0 Derby (20 Mar 2021)
  9. Derby 0–0 Stoke City (12 Dec 2020)
  10. Derby 4–0 Stoke City (31 Jan 2020)

Derby recent matches

Scores below are shown as Derby goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
14 Oct 2026QPRAway1–4Lost
10 Oct 2026WrexhamHome1–1Draw
19 Sep 2026BurnleyAway1–1Draw
12 Sep 2026BirminghamHome1–2Lost
09 Sep 2026West BromHome0–1Lost
Derby detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Derby performance

Fixtures played home5
Fixtures played away5
Fixtures played total10
Wins home0
Wins away1
Wins total1
Draws home2
Draws away1
Draws total3
Losses home3
Losses away3
Losses total6
Biggest streak wins1
Biggest streak draws2
Biggest streak losses3
Biggest wins away0-2
Biggest losses home0-3
Biggest losses away4-1
Biggest goals for home2
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away4
Clean sheet home0
Clean sheet away1
Clean sheet total1
Failed to score home2
Failed to score away1
Failed to score total3
Penalty scored total0
Penalty scored percentage0%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total0

Derby goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home4
Goals for total away5
Goals for total9
Goals for average home0.80
Goals for average away1.00
Goals for average total0.90
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage11.11%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total3
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage33.33%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total1
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage11.11%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total1
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage11.11%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage11.11%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total1
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage11.11%
Goals for minute · 91-105 · total1
Goals for minute · 91-105 · percentage11.11%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over7
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under3
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over2
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under8
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under10
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under10
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under10
Goals against total home9
Goals against total away10
Goals against total19
Goals against average home1.80
Goals against average away2.00
Goals against average total1.90
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total2
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage10.53%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage21.05%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total5
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage26.32%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total3
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage15.79%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total5
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage26.32%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over9
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under1
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over6
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under4
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under9
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under10

Stoke City recent matches

Scores below are shown as Stoke City goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
13 Oct 2026MiddlesbroughHome2–3Lost
10 Oct 2026BoltonAway2–1Won
19 Sep 2026Sheffield UtdHome2–1Won
12 Sep 2026WatfordAway2–1Won
08 Sep 2026CardiffAway1–1Draw
Stoke City detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Stoke City performance

Fixtures played home5
Fixtures played away5
Fixtures played total10
Wins home3
Wins away2
Wins total5
Draws home0
Draws away1
Draws total1
Losses home2
Losses away2
Losses total4
Biggest streak wins3
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses3
Biggest wins home4-0
Biggest wins away1-2
Biggest losses home2-3
Biggest losses away4-1
Biggest goals for home4
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away4
Clean sheet home2
Clean sheet away0
Clean sheet total2
Failed to score home0
Failed to score away0
Failed to score total0
Penalty scored total1
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total1

Stoke City goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home10
Goals for total away7
Goals for total17
Goals for average home2.00
Goals for average away1.40
Goals for average total1.70
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total4
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage25.00%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage25.00%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total3
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage18.75%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total1
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage6.25%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total1
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage6.25%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total3
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage18.75%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over10
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under0
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over5
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under5
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under9
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under9
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under10
Goals against total home6
Goals against total away10
Goals against total16
Goals against average home1.20
Goals against average away2.00
Goals against average total1.60
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage5.88%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total3
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage17.65%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total4
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage23.53%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total3
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage17.65%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total6
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage35.29%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over8
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under2
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over4
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under6
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over3
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under9
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under10

Goal markets and betting-tip context

No goals selection is currently recorded for this fixture. The available team form and scoring data can still help explain the match outlook.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Derby predictions and analysis, Stoke City match tips, or more Championship predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.