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Bahia vs Sao Paulo Prediction

Betting tips and match analysis for Serie A, . Compare the available win probabilities, goal markets, recent form and head-to-head record below.

This match has finished. The page retains its pre-match prediction alongside the recorded result.

Record updated: .

Serie A

Bahia badge Bahia
VS

Final result3–2

Arena Fonte Nova

Match Finished

Sao Paulo badge Sao Paulo
OUR RECOMMENDATIONDouble chance : draw or Sao PauloSelection confidence: 90%
10%
HOME WIN
BahiaProbability
45%
DRAW
DrawProbability
45%
AWAY WIN
Sao PauloProbability
GOALS MARKETNot suppliedTotal goals

Match prediction and betting tips

Predicted winner
Sao Paulo
Betting advice
Double chance : draw or Sao Paulo

Team strengths and match probabilities

FactorBahiaSao Paulo
Form36.0%64.0%
Attack38.0%63.0%
Defence46.0%54.0%
Poisson66.0%34.0%
H2H29.0%71.0%
Goals31.0%69.0%
Total41.0%59.2%

Team form and goal analysis

Bahia

Recent form (last 5): L L W L D

Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.

Sao Paulo

Recent form (last 5): L L W W D

Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Sao Paulo 2–2 Bahia (03 May 2026)
  2. Sao Paulo 2–0 Bahia (26 Oct 2025)
  3. Bahia 2–1 Sao Paulo (31 May 2025)
  4. Bahia 0–3 Sao Paulo (06 Nov 2024)
  5. Sao Paulo 3–1 Bahia (30 Jun 2024)
  6. Bahia 0–1 Sao Paulo (30 Nov 2023)
  7. Sao Paulo 0–0 Bahia (30 Jul 2023)
  8. Bahia 1–0 Sao Paulo (07 Nov 2021)
  9. Sao Paulo 1–0 Bahia (11 Jul 2021)
  10. Bahia 1–3 Sao Paulo (28 Nov 2020)

Bahia recent matches

Scores below are shown as Bahia goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
25 Oct 2026SantosAway1–1Draw
18 Oct 2026FlamengoHome0–3Lost
12 Oct 2026MirassolHome1–0Won
09 Oct 2026PalmeirasAway0–1Lost
21 Sep 2026Atletico ParanaenseAway1–2Lost
Bahia detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Bahia performance

Fixtures played home16
Fixtures played away16
Fixtures played total32
Wins home7
Wins away6
Wins total13
Draws home6
Draws away5
Draws total11
Losses home3
Losses away5
Losses total8
Biggest streak wins4
Biggest streak draws5
Biggest streak losses2
Biggest wins home3-0
Biggest wins away0-2
Biggest losses home0-3
Biggest losses away4-1
Biggest goals for home3
Biggest goals for away3
Biggest goals against home3
Biggest goals against away4
Clean sheet home5
Clean sheet away4
Clean sheet total9
Failed to score home2
Failed to score away3
Failed to score total5
Penalty scored total8
Penalty scored percentage72.73%
Penalty missed total3
Penalty missed percentage27.27%
Penalty total11

Bahia goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home23
Goals for total away22
Goals for total45
Goals for average home1.40
Goals for average away1.40
Goals for average total1.40
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total4
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage8.89%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total7
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage15.56%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total10
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage22.22%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total8
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage17.78%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total5
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage11.11%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total5
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage11.11%
Goals for minute · 91-105 · total6
Goals for minute · 91-105 · percentage13.33%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over27
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under5
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over14
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under18
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over4
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under28
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under32
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under32
Goals against total home17
Goals against total away23
Goals against total40
Goals against average home1.10
Goals against average away1.40
Goals against average total1.30
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total5
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage12.50%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total8
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage20.00%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total4
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage10.00%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total9
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage22.50%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total8
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage20.00%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total4
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage10.00%
Goals against minute · 91-105 · total2
Goals against minute · 91-105 · percentage5.00%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over23
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under9
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over12
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under20
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over4
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under28
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under31
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under32

Sao Paulo recent matches

Scores below are shown as Sao Paulo goals first, followed by the opponent’s goals.

DateOpponentVenueScoreResult
24 Oct 2026MirassolAway1–1Draw
18 Oct 2026Vasco DA GamaHome1–0Won
11 Oct 2026VitoriaHome2–1Won
08 Oct 2026CruzeiroAway0–2Lost
03 Oct 2026SantosHome1–2Lost
Sao Paulo detailed team and goal statistics

Saved provider statistics used for this prediction. Goal thresholds here describe this team’s goals scored or conceded, not combined match totals.

Sao Paulo performance

Fixtures played home16
Fixtures played away16
Fixtures played total32
Wins home10
Wins away2
Wins total12
Draws home3
Draws away4
Draws total7
Losses home3
Losses away10
Losses total13
Biggest streak wins4
Biggest streak draws1
Biggest streak losses2
Biggest wins home4-1
Biggest wins away1-2
Biggest losses home1-2
Biggest losses away2-0
Biggest goals for home4
Biggest goals for away2
Biggest goals against home2
Biggest goals against away3
Clean sheet home6
Clean sheet away1
Clean sheet total7
Failed to score home1
Failed to score away6
Failed to score total7
Penalty scored total6
Penalty scored percentage100.00%
Penalty missed total0
Penalty missed percentage0%
Penalty total6

Sao Paulo goals scored and conceded

Goals for total home25
Goals for total away12
Goals for total37
Goals for average home1.60
Goals for average away0.80
Goals for average total1.20
Goals for minute · 0-15 · total6
Goals for minute · 0-15 · percentage16.22%
Goals for minute · 16-30 · total5
Goals for minute · 16-30 · percentage13.51%
Goals for minute · 31-45 · total4
Goals for minute · 31-45 · percentage10.81%
Goals for minute · 46-60 · total7
Goals for minute · 46-60 · percentage18.92%
Goals for minute · 61-75 · total11
Goals for minute · 61-75 · percentage29.73%
Goals for minute · 76-90 · total3
Goals for minute · 76-90 · percentage8.11%
Goals for minute · 91-105 · total1
Goals for minute · 91-105 · percentage2.70%
Goals for under over · 0.5 · over25
Goals for under over · 0.5 · under7
Goals for under over · 1.5 · over10
Goals for under over · 1.5 · under22
Goals for under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 2.5 · under31
Goals for under over · 3.5 · over1
Goals for under over · 3.5 · under31
Goals for under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals for under over · 4.5 · under32
Goals against total home13
Goals against total away23
Goals against total36
Goals against average home0.80
Goals against average away1.40
Goals against average total1.10
Goals against minute · 0-15 · total1
Goals against minute · 0-15 · percentage2.78%
Goals against minute · 16-30 · total4
Goals against minute · 16-30 · percentage11.11%
Goals against minute · 31-45 · total6
Goals against minute · 31-45 · percentage16.67%
Goals against minute · 46-60 · total14
Goals against minute · 46-60 · percentage38.89%
Goals against minute · 61-75 · total3
Goals against minute · 61-75 · percentage8.33%
Goals against minute · 76-90 · total6
Goals against minute · 76-90 · percentage16.67%
Goals against minute · 91-105 · total2
Goals against minute · 91-105 · percentage5.56%
Goals against under over · 0.5 · over25
Goals against under over · 0.5 · under7
Goals against under over · 1.5 · over10
Goals against under over · 1.5 · under22
Goals against under over · 2.5 · over1
Goals against under over · 2.5 · under31
Goals against under over · 3.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 3.5 · under32
Goals against under over · 4.5 · over0
Goals against under over · 4.5 · under32

Goal markets and betting-tip context

No goals selection is currently recorded for this fixture. The available team form and scoring data can still help explain the match outlook.

Over 1.5 goals requires at least two total match goals; over 2.5 requires at least three. Both teams to score (BTTS) is a separate market: each side must score. A high total-goals estimate alone does not establish a BTTS tip, and not every market has a prediction for every fixture.

More team and league analysis

Explore Bahia predictions and analysis, Sao Paulo match tips, or more Serie A predictions for upcoming fixtures and recent results.

Predictions are statistical estimates. Recent form and head-to-head results provide context, but do not guarantee the outcome.