Zidgrad Idrija vs Dob Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Dob a double-chance edge of draw or away win, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% Dob against only 10% for Zidgrad Idrija, so the advice is essentially a bet against a home victory rather than a strong call on either outcome. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Dob leads on attack (61 vs 39), Poisson (70 vs 30), goals (82 vs 18) and total (62.2 vs 37.8), while form is nearly level (52 vs 48) and defence is identical at 50, suggesting the model sees a clear attacking gap but no defensive separation. The head-to-head record is the most extreme input, with Dob rated 100 and Idrija 0, and it is backed by two meetings in 2025: a 7-2 Dob home win and a 0-2 Dob victory in Idrija, which together explain why the model leans so heavily away from a home win. Idrija's own profile is not weak, however, since they are unbeaten in six with five wins and one draw, including a 3-2 away win at Vipava and a 2-1 home win over Adria, and they have scored in all but one of those matches. Dob's form is more mixed at four wins, one draw and one loss, and their 0-3 home defeat to Izola shows the away side can be beaten, which qualifies the otherwise dominant head-to-head and Poisson signals. The goals analysis adds nuance: Dob average 2.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while Idrija average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded, so both defences have been stingy and the 7-2 head-to-head result looks like an outlier rather than a reliable expectation. Dob's scoring is spread across the match, with 26.7% of goals in the first 15 minutes and 20% in each of the 31-45, 46-60 and 76-90 windows, whereas Idrija concentrate 42.9% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes and 42.9% in the final 15, hinting at a game that could be decided at the edges rather than throughout. Dob also concede 80% of their goals in the 76-90 window, a late-game vulnerability that could give Idrija a route back into a match the model expects them to lose, even if the overall evidence still favours the draw-or-Dob advice. The last-five records reinforce the tension: Idrija have won four and drawn one, while Dob have won four and lost one, so both arrive in reasonable shape and the 45-45 split between draw and away win looks like an honest reflection of uncertainty rather than a confident prediction.

Predicted winner

Dob

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Dob

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Zidgrad Idrija 0–2 Dob (28 Mar 2026)
2. Dob 7–2 Zidgrad Idrija (13 Sep 2025)