Zambia vs Togo Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's existing output makes Togo the nominal winner but frames the advice as a double chance on draw or Togo, with probabilities of 45% away, 45% draw and only 10% home. That near-even split between a Togo win and a draw suggests the model sees this as a low-separation fixture rather than a clear away dominance, so the draw component of the advice carries as much weight as the away-win component.
• The comparison metrics are sharply one-sided in Togo's favour on form (100.00 vs 0.00) and defence (100.00 vs 0.00), while attack is level at 50.00 each and the Poisson, head-to-head and goals columns are all 0.00 for both sides. The 0.00 Poisson and goals entries indicate no separating signal was generated in those models, which means the form and defence gaps are doing most of the explanatory work behind the 45% away probability.
• Zambia's team analysis shows a single away loss with a 3-1 scoreline, no clean sheets and no wins, and their goals analysis shows one goal scored (in the 46-60 window) against three conceded, with two of those three arriving in the 61-75 window. This pattern of conceding late-ish and failing to keep clean sheets is consistent with the 0.00 defensive rating and helps explain why the model gives Zambia only a 10% win probability despite home status.
• Togo's team analysis shows a single home win, a 1-0 clean sheet, and their goals analysis shows one goal scored in the 16-30 window with zero conceded. That defensive solidity is the main counterweight to the modest attacking output, and it aligns with the 100.00 defensive comparison rating, though the single-match sample means the strength of that signal should be treated cautiously.
• The last-five records add important context that the one-match team analysis cannot: Zambia have lost three of five (1-3 away to Algeria, 0-5 away to Argentina, 0-3 at home to Morocco) with two goalless or low-scoring draws, while Togo are unbeaten in five with three wins (1-0 vs Burundi, 5-1 vs Benin, 1-0 away to Niger) and two draws. Togo's 5-1 win over Benin shows they can score heavily, which slightly qualifies the low-scoring picture from their single-match goals analysis, but the overall trend still favours Togo and supports the draw-or-Togo advice.
• The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no historical matchup evidence to either reinforce or contradict the form-based lean toward Togo. With no head-to-head data and Poisson and goals metrics both at 0.00, the prediction rests almost entirely on recent form and defensive records, which are drawn from small samples; this is consistent with the model's cautious double-chance framing rather than a confident outright away win.

Predicted winner

Togo

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Togo

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.