Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu vs Diyarbekirspor Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu, assigning a 45% home win probability and a 45% draw probability while leaving Diyarbekirspor only 10%, and the advised combo pairs that home outcome with under 3.5 goals. That split between home and draw is notable because the comparison metrics are far less balanced, with Yeni Mersin leading on form (75.00 vs 25.00), attack (100.00 vs 0.00), Poisson (100.00 vs 0.00), head-to-head (91.00 vs 9.00), goals (89.00 vs 11.00) and total (74.80 vs 25.30), while defence is the one category where Diyarbekirspor edges ahead at 56.00 against 44.00. The team analysis partly explains that defensive counterweight: Yeni Mersin have played three matches with a LLW sequence, one win and two losses, and their home record shows a single defeat with three goals conceded, whereas Diyarbekirspor are LLD with no wins, one draw and two losses. Diyarbekirspor's goals analysis is the starkest evidence against them, as they have scored zero goals across three fixtures with a 0.00 average and failed to score in all three, which aligns with their 0.00 attack and Poisson scores. Yeni Mersin's goal profile is modest rather than explosive, with three goals at a 1.00 average, two of them arriving in the 46-60 minute window, and their goals-against average of 1.70 reflects five conceded, including late concessions in the 61-75 and 91-105 periods. The last-five records add a small-sample caution: Yeni Mersin's four listed matches include a 5-1 home win over Bucak Oğuzhanspor but also a 1-3 home loss to Mazıdağı Fosfatspor, while Diyarbekirspor's five include a 0-0 draw with Talasgücü Belediyespor, a 0-3 away defeat to Mazıdağı Fosfatspor and a 4-0 away win at Kilis Belediyespor from the previous April. The head-to-head record supports the home side more consistently, with Yeni Mersin winning 4-0 at home in April 2025 and 2-1 at home in March 2024, plus a 0-0 draw in Diyarbakır, though Diyarbekirspor did win 2-0 at home in October 2023. Taken together, the evidence supports the home-leaning advice but qualifies it: the large comparison gaps and Diyarbekirspor's scoreless run point one way, yet the near-equal home and draw probabilities, Yeni Mersin's leaky home defence and the low-scoring nature of both teams' recent matches make the under 3.5 component more coherent than any expectation of a comfortable home rout.

Predicted winner

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 4–0 Diyarbekirspor (02 Apr 2025)
2. Diyarbekirspor 0–0 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu (14 Oct 2024)
3. Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 2–1 Diyarbekirspor (10 Mar 2024)
4. Diyarbekirspor 0–2 Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu (28 Oct 2023)