Yemen vs Qatar Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output favours Qatar as the winner, yet its own probabilities are unusually cautious, splitting the remaining likelihood evenly between a draw and a Qatar win at 50% each while assigning Yemen a 0% chance. That tension is echoed in the comparison metrics, where Qatar lead 100.00 to 0.00 on form, attack, defence, head-to-head and goals, but the Poisson column sits at 0.00 for both sides, suggesting the goal-based model offers no separating signal and the advice rests mainly on recent results and history. Qatar's single match in this sample was a 2-0 home win over Bahrain with a clean sheet and a converted penalty, whereas Yemen's lone outing was a 4-0 away defeat to the United Arab Emirates in which they failed to score and conceded across the 16-30, 31-45 and 46-60 minute bands. Those one-match samples are thin, and Yemen's wider last-five record complicates the picture, since it includes a 2-0 win over Lebanon, a 4-4 draw with Comoros, a 7-1 win over Bhutan and a 9-0 win over Brunei, showing they can score heavily against weaker opposition even if the 4-0 loss is the most recent and most relevant form line. Qatar's last five are more mixed than their 100.00 form rating implies, with a 2-0 win over Bahrain followed by defeats to Bosnia & Herzegovina (1-3) and Canada (0-6) and draws with Switzerland (1-1) and El Salvador (0-0), so their attacking output has been inconsistent outside the Bahrain result. The head-to-head record leans clearly toward Qatar but is built on only two meetings, a 6-0 Qatar away win in 2019 and a 4-0 Qatar home win in 2017, both in this same competition, which supports the historical edge without proving it will repeat. Yemen's goals analysis shows zero goals for and four against at an average of 4.00 conceded, while Qatar show two scored and none conceded, so the defensive contrast is stark but rests on a single game each. Overall, the evidence jointly supports the Qatar winner advice through form, head-to-head and the most recent results, but the 50% draw probability, the empty Poisson signal and the very small samples mean this should be treated as a lean rather than a certainty.

Predicted winner

Qatar

Betting advice

Winner : Qatar

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Yemen 0–6 Qatar (29 Nov 2019)
2. Qatar 4–0 Yemen (23 Dec 2017)