Yambol 1915 vs Neftochimic Burgas Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Yambol 1915 win combined with over 2.5 goals, but its own probabilities are unusually cautious, showing 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the headline advice is stronger than the underlying confidence. The comparison metrics broadly support Yambol: they lead on form (57 vs 43), attack (65 vs 35), defence (57 vs 43) and especially Poisson (88 vs 12), while the goals comparison is the one clear counterweight, favouring Neftochimic 57 to 43. That tension matters because Yambol's team analysis shows five wins from seven with a 5-1 home best and a remarkable 0-7 away win, yet their recent form string of DWLWWWW includes a 3-1 loss at Spartak Plovdiv, so they are not untroubled. Neftochimic's profile is far more home-dependent: three wins and three clean sheets all came at home, while away they have zero wins, one draw and two defeats, including 4-2 losses at Sozopol and Levski Krumovgrad. Their goals analysis reinforces that split, with 0.50 conceded per home game against 3.30 away, and only one of seven matches going over 2.5 goals, which sits awkwardly beside the over 2.5 advice. Yambol's goals numbers point the other way, averaging 3.40 scored and 1.00 conceded, with four of seven matches over 2.5 and all seven seeing at least one goal, so the over element has a plausible basis even if Neftochimic's own matches have been low-scoring. The last-five records sharpen the contrast: Yambol have four wins and a loss with 20 goals scored, while Neftochimic have three home wins and two away defeats, meaning their away form is the weakest link in the evidence. The head-to-head record is the clearest qualifier, since Neftochimic lead it 80 to 20 on the comparison scale and the two meetings produced a 1-1 draw and a 3-2 Yambol away win, a small sample that neither confirms nor overturns the home-side lean. Overall, the form, attack, defence and Poisson evidence jointly justify the Yambol side of the advice, but the 45% draw probability, Neftochimic's head-to-head edge and their low-scoring tendency mean the combination should be treated as plausible rather than secure.

Predicted winner

Yambol 1915

Betting advice

Combo Winner : Yambol 1915 and +2.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+2.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Neftochimic Burgas 1–1 Yambol 1915 (09 Apr 2026)
2. Yambol 1915 2–3 Neftochimic Burgas (01 Oct 2025)