Wimborne Town vs Yate Town Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's advice of a Wimborne Town win or draw is consistent with a 45% home probability and 45% draw probability, leaving Yate Town at only 10%; this is a cautious rather than confident home call, since the two most likely outcomes are equally weighted and the away side is not dismissed entirely.
• The comparison metrics are internally split: Wimborne lead on form (56 vs 44), Poisson (53 vs 47), head-to-head (71 vs 29), goals (53 vs 47) and total (61.2 vs 38.8), but Yate lead on attack (57 vs 43) and, most starkly, defence (9 vs 91). That defensive gap is the main tension with the home-favouring advice, though it may reflect Yate's higher goals-against rather than a true defensive strength.
• Wimborne's profile is low-scoring and resilient: 2 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from seven, with 6 goals for and only 4 against, four clean sheets and four failures to score. Their last five include two 1-1 draws with Weston-super-Mare, a 2-0 home win over Bracknell Town and a 3-1 away win at Portishead Town, suggesting a team that is hard to beat but rarely dominant.
• Yate's profile is more open: 3 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from seven, with 10 goals for and 11 against, only one clean sheet and no failures to score. Their last five show a 1-2 loss at Chippenham Town, a 0-0 home draw with Chippenham, a 3-2 away win at Hanworth Villa and a 3-0 home win over Devizes Town, indicating they can score but also concede regularly.
• The goals analysis reinforces the contrast: Wimborne average 0.90 goals for and 0.60 against, with 50% of their goals scored in the 76-90 minute window and 50% of goals conceded in the 61-75 window. Yate average 1.40 for and 1.60 against, with 40% of their goals scored in the 31-45 window and 27.27% of goals conceded in the 76-90 window, so late-game patterns could matter if the match stays tight.
• The head-to-head record gives Wimborne a 71-29 edge and includes a 4-1 home win over Yate in October 2025, but it also contains a 1-1 draw in March 2026 and a 0-5 away defeat in March 2022, so the historical sample is mixed and does not guarantee a home win. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance advice more than a straight home victory, with the main risk being Yate's superior scoring rate against Wimborne's stronger defensive record.

Predicted winner

Wimborne Town

Betting advice

Double chance : Wimborne Town or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Yate Town 1–1 Wimborne Town (07 Mar 2026)
2. Wimborne Town 4–1 Yate Town (14 Oct 2025)
3. Yate Town 0–2 Wimborne Town (17 Feb 2024)
4. Wimborne Town 1–0 Yate Town (28 Oct 2023)
5. Wimborne Town 0–5 Yate Town (08 Mar 2022)