Wacker Burghausen vs TSV 1860 München Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives TSV 1860 München a 45% win probability and Wacker Burghausen only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the advice of a draw-or-1860 double chance combined with over 1.5 goals rests on a clear but not overwhelming edge. That edge is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where 1860 lead on form (56 vs 44), defence (73 vs 27), Poisson (62 vs 38), head-to-head (100 vs 0) and total (59.4 vs 40.6), while Burghausen counter with a stronger attack score (61 vs 39) and a goals metric in their favour (67 vs 33). The team analysis reconciles this tension: 1860 are unbeaten in nine matches (four wins, five draws, no losses) and have never failed to score, whereas Burghausen have lost four of ten and show a volatile WWDLLLWLDW sequence. Burghausen's attacking threat is real, though, since they average 2.40 goals per game and have scored in every home fixture, which helps explain why the model still leaves 45% on the draw rather than backing an away win outright. Defensively the gap is stark: 1860 concede only 1.10 goals per game and have kept three clean sheets, while Burghausen concede 1.80 and have shipped five goals at home, supporting the view that 1860 are the more reliable side. The last-five records add nuance, as Burghausen mixed a 5-2 win over Augsburg II with a 4-5 home defeat to Vilzing and a 1-2 loss to Landsberg, while 1860 recorded two wins and three draws, including 2-0 over Nürnberg II and 3-0 over Schwaben Augsburg. The head-to-head section is thin, containing only a 2021 friendly in which 1860 beat Burghausen 4-2 at home, so the 100% away head-to-head score reflects a single unrepresentative sample rather than a sustained pattern. The goals analysis supports the over 1.5 component, since Burghausen have gone over 1.5 in six of ten matches and 1860 in seven of nine, and neither side has exceeded 3.5 goals in any of 1860's matches. Overall, the evidence points to 1860's defensive solidity and unbeaten run underpinning the double chance, but Burghausen's scoring rate and the high draw probability mean the outcome remains genuinely uncertain rather than assured.

Predicted winner

TSV 1860 München

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or TSV 1860 München and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. TSV 1860 München 4–2 Wacker Burghausen (11 Jul 2021)