Vranov nad Topľou vs Kežmarok Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Vranov nad Topľou a 45% home win and 45% draw probability, leaving Kežmarok only 10%, and frames the advice as a double chance on Vranov or draw combined with over 1.5 goals. That asymmetry is anchored by the form comparison, where Vranov rates 100.00 against Kežmarok's 0.00, yet the attack, head-to-head and goals metrics are dead level at 50.00 each, so the edge is narrower than the headline probabilities suggest. The Poisson split of 61.00 to 39.00 and the total comparison of 51.60 to 48.40 lean the same way but only moderately, while defence actually tilts slightly to Kežmarok at 53.00 versus 47.00, which qualifies any assumption of home dominance. Vranov's own record is poor in absolute terms: one win, one draw and five defeats in seven, a five-match losing streak, no clean sheets and three failures to score, so the 100.00 form rating reflects relative rather than genuine strength. Kežmarok's profile is worse still, with seven defeats from seven, no clean sheets and five scoreless matches, and their 21 goals conceded matches Vranov's 21, although Kežmarok's 4 goals scored is lower than Vranov's 6. The goals analysis supports the over 1.5 element more than a comfortable home win, since Vranov average 0.90 scored and 3.00 conceded per game while Kežmarok average 0.60 scored and 3.00 conceded, and both teams have seen over 0.5 goals in all seven matches. The last-five records reinforce the same tension: Vranov have two wins, one draw and two defeats with 5 scored and 9 conceded, whereas Kežmarok have lost all five while scoring 4 and conceding 14, including a 3-4 at Partizán Bardejov. The head-to-head sample is small and entirely drawn, with 1-1 in both the March 2026 meeting at Kežmarok and the August 2025 meeting at Vranov, which is why the h2h comparison sits at 50.00 each and offers no separation. Taken together, the evidence supports the double chance mainly because Kežmarok's seven-loss start is the more extreme weakness, but the level attack, goals and head-to-head metrics plus Vranov's own five-game losing run mean the draw half of that advice carries real weight, and the over 1.5 goals leg looks the better-supported component given both defences concede heavily.

Predicted winner

Vranov nad Topľou

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Vranov nad Topľou or draw and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Kežmarok 1–1 Vranov nad Topľou (07 Mar 2026)
2. Vranov nad Topľou 1–1 Kežmarok (02 Aug 2025)