Vjosa vs Istogu Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Vjosa win, but its 35% home probability is only marginally ahead of a 35% draw and 30% away, so the advice is best read as a slight preference rather than a firm edge. The comparison metrics pull in different directions: Vjosa leads on attack (64 versus 36) and the Poisson measure is fully one-sided at 100 versus 0, yet Istogu is ahead on form (55 versus 45) and dominates the head-to-head split 80 to 20. That head-to-head advantage is the clearest counterweight, since Istogu won the most recent meeting 4-1 in April 2026 and the earlier October 2025 fixture ended 1-1, meaning Vjosa has not beaten this opponent in the recorded sample. Vjosa's six-match record of one win, two draws and three defeats is heavily home-weighted in quality: their only victory was a 4-1 home rout of Prishtina e Re, while all three losses came away, and they have kept one clean sheet and failed to score twice. Istogu's six matches produced two wins and four defeats with no draws, and the split is stark, as both wins and their only clean sheet came at home while all three away games were lost, including a 5-0 defeat, and they failed to score in three of six. The goals data reinforces that asymmetry, with Vjosa averaging 2.00 goals at home against 0.80 away and conceding 0.50 at home versus 1.50 away, whereas Istogu have scored 1.30 per home game but 0.00 away and conceded 1.00 at home versus 2.70 away. The last-five records echo this: Vjosa's sequence includes a 4-1 home win, two goalless or low-scoring draws and two away defeats, while Istogu's shows two home wins and three away losses, so both teams' away form is the weakest part of their profiles. The goals analysis also shows low-scoring tendencies, with Vjosa going under 2.5 goals in five of six matches and Istogu doing so in all six, which tempers any expectation of a high-scoring home win. Overall, the home-versus-away splits and Vjosa's superior attack support the Vjosa advice, but the near-even probabilities, Istogu's head-to-head edge and the small six-match samples mean the prediction should be treated as uncertain rather than confident.

Predicted winner

Vjosa

Betting advice

Winner : Vjosa

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Istogu 4–1 Vjosa (11 Apr 2026)
2. Vjosa 1–1 Istogu (11 Oct 2025)