Vis Pesaro vs Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Guidonia Montecelio 1937 a 45% chance of winning and Vis Pesaro only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the double-chance advice on draw or Guidonia reflects a fixture where the away side is favoured but a stalemate is equally plausible. That balance is echoed in the comparison metrics, where Guidonia's form score of 86 dwarfs Vis Pesaro's 14 and their defensive rating of 72 against 28 is similarly lopsided, yet Vis Pesaro's attack rating of 55 edges Guidonia's 45 and their goals metric of 67 against 33 points the other way. The Poisson estimate of 65 for Guidonia against 35 for Vis Pesaro aligns with the overall away lean, while the head-to-head split of 80 to 20 in Vis Pesaro's favour is the clearest counterweight and rests on a very small sample. Vis Pesaro's team analysis shows a LDLLLL sequence with no wins in six matches, five defeats, no clean sheets, and a heaviest home loss of 1-4, which explains their weak form and defensive scores but also their relatively high goals-for weighting. Guidonia's WLWDDD record includes two wins, three draws, and one loss, with two home clean sheets and no match in which they failed to score, supporting the defensive and Poisson advantages even though their away form is thinner with no away wins. The goals analysis reinforces the contrast in solidity: Vis Pesaro concede 2.50 per game overall and have shipped goals in every match, while Guidonia concede only 0.80 per game and have kept their opponents to one goal or fewer in all six outings. Vis Pesaro's last five are all defeats, including a 0-5 loss at Gubbio and a 1-4 home loss to Reggiana, whereas Guidonia's last five show a win over Pianese and three 1-1 draws, suggesting they are hard to beat but not especially prolific. The head-to-head record contains only two meetings, a 0-0 draw in March 2026 and a 2-1 Vis Pesaro home win in November 2025, so the 80-20 split should be treated as a small-sample signal rather than a reliable trend. Overall, the form, defensive, Poisson, and goals evidence jointly support the draw-or-Guidonia advice, but the away side's low scoring rate, their lack of away wins, and Vis Pesaro's head-to-head edge qualify it, making the draw component of the double chance the more defensible part of the prediction.

Predicted winner

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Guidonia Montecelio 1937 0–0 Vis Pesaro (21 Mar 2026)
2. Vis Pesaro 2–1 Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (15 Nov 2025)