Vilzing vs Illertissen Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output gives Illertissen a 45% chance of winning and a 45% chance of drawing, leaving Vilzing at just 10%, which frames the double-chance advice of draw or Illertissen as the natural expression of that split. That near-even split between an away win and a draw is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where form is identical at 50.00 for both sides and defence is likewise level at 50.00, so neither team holds a clear structural edge in those areas. The attacking comparison does diverge, with Vilzing rated 62.00 against Illertissen's 38.00, yet the Poisson projection reverses that picture by favouring Illertissen at 56.00 versus 44.00, a conflict that suggests the model weights recent scoring patterns and match context more heavily than raw attacking output. The head-to-head and goals metrics are far more one-sided, with Illertissen at 93.00 versus Vilzing's 7.00 in head-to-head and 90.00 versus 10.00 in goals, indicating a strong historical and scoring-based lean toward the away side that supports the advice despite the attacking metric's disagreement. Both teams' performance records are broadly comparable in volume, as Vilzing have four wins, three draws and two losses from nine matches while Illertissen have five wins, two draws and three losses from ten, though Illertissen's perfect three-from-three penalty conversion is a minor detail that could matter in a tight game. The goals analysis shows Vilzing averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match, while Illertissen average 1.70 scored and 1.20 conceded, a marginal overall advantage to Illertissen that is offset by Vilzing's stronger home scoring rate of 1.40 versus their away rate of 1.80. The last-five records add further nuance, with Vilzing drawing three of their last five including two goalless or one-goal stalemates, while Illertissen have won two and lost three of their last five, a mixed run that includes a 3-0 away win at Schweinfurt but also a 0-2 home defeat to Memmingen. The head-to-head record is the most decisive evidence, as Illertissen have won five of the eight meetings, Vilzing two, with one draw, and Illertissen have won on their last three visits to Vilzing's Manfred-Zollner-Stadion by scores of 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1. Taken together, the level form and defensive metrics, Vilzing's superior attacking rating, and Illertissen's dominant head-to-head and Poisson profile create a genuinely uncertain picture in which the draw-or-Illertissen advice reflects the model's weighting of historical and projection data over the single conflicting attack metric.

Predicted winner

Illertissen

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Illertissen

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Illertissen 0–0 Vilzing (27 Mar 2026)
2. Vilzing 0–1 Illertissen (13 Sep 2025)
3. Vilzing 0–1 Illertissen (02 Nov 2024)
4. Illertissen 5–0 Vilzing (20 Jul 2024)
5. Vilzing 1–2 Illertissen (16 Mar 2024)