Villefranche vs Versailles Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Versailles a double-chance edge of draw or win, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% Versailles against only 10% for a Villefranche victory, and the comparison metrics reinforce that lean almost across the board. Form, attack, defence, head-to-head, goals and total all favour the away side by wide margins, with the total comparison at 70.20 versus 30.00 being the most lopsided, while the Poisson metric is the notable exception at a much narrower 56.00 to 44.00. That narrower Poisson reading is worth holding against the broader trend, since it suggests the goal-based model sees a tighter contest than the raw form and scoring splits imply. Villefranche's team analysis shows a 1-1-5 record across seven matches with a current form string of LWLLLDL, and their away numbers are especially poor at four defeats from four with 15 goals conceded on the road for a 3.80 average. Versailles sit at 3-1-3 with form LWWLLWD, and their away record of two wins from four with nine goals scored away (2.30 per game) is the clearest driver of the attacking comparison gap. The last-five records sharpen that contrast: Villefranche have one draw and four defeats, including a 6-1 loss at Fleury 91 and a 4-1 loss at Le Puy Foot, while Versailles have two wins, one draw and two losses, featuring a 4-0 win at Orleans and a 3-2 win at Bastia but also 3-0 defeats at both Cannes and Amiens. Versailles' away form is therefore genuinely two-sided rather than uniformly strong, which is a meaningful qualifier on the double-chance advice even though the draw component covers one of those failure modes. The head-to-head record is the most direct counterweight to the model's lean, since Villefranche have won three of the last eight meetings and Versailles three, with two draws, and Villefranche won the most recent encounter 1-0 at this same Stade Armand Chouffet in February 2026. That recent home win for Villefranche, combined with their two clean sheets at home, suggests the 10% home probability may be treating a small sample of current form as more decisive than the venue-specific history warrants. Overall the evidence supports the draw-or-Versailles advice mainly through Versailles' superior away scoring and Villefranche's leaky away defence, but the even draw-versus-away split, the tighter Poisson estimate and Villefranche's recent head-to-head win at this ground all argue for treating the prediction as a lean rather than a firm conclusion.

Predicted winner

Versailles

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Versailles

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Villefranche 1–0 Versailles (06 Feb 2026)
2. Versailles 2–1 Villefranche (07 Oct 2025)
3. Versailles 1–1 Villefranche (28 Mar 2025)
4. Villefranche 1–3 Versailles (01 Nov 2024)
5. Villefranche 0–1 Versailles (02 Mar 2024)