Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12
Villaverde Norte vs Mensajero Prediction
Match prediction
- Mensajero's two clean-sheet wins in three league games contrast with Villaverde Norte's winless start, supporting the away side's stronger overall profile.
- Villaverde Norte's defensive record is poor, conceding five goals away from home, which explains why the model gives them only a 10% win probability.
- Mensajero's away form is weak, losing their only away match without scoring, which justifies the draw being equally likely at 45%.
- Both teams average under one goal per game, and no match has exceeded 3.5 goals, making the under 3.5 goals advice well supported.
- The combined double chance of draw or Mensajero covers 90% of the model's probability, reflecting the low likelihood of a home victory.
- Mensajero's goals are split between the 31-45 and 91-105 minute intervals, suggesting their scoring threat is sporadic rather than sustained.
- Predicted winner
- Mensajero
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : draw or Mensajero and -3.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- -3.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Villaverde Norte | Mensajero |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 14.0% | 86.0% |
| Attack | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Defence | 14.0% | 86.0% |
| Poisson | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Goals | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Total | 26.0% | 74.0% |
Team form and goal analysis
Villaverde Norte
Recent form: LDL.
Average goals scored: 0.70 per match.
Mensajero
Recent form: WLW.
Average goals scored: 0.70 per match.
Head-to-head record
No recorded head-to-head matches are available.


