Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 12

Villaverde Norte vs Mensajero Prediction

Villaverde Norte badgeVillaverde Norte vs Mensajero badgeMensajero

Match prediction

  • Mensajero's two clean-sheet wins in three league games contrast with Villaverde Norte's winless start, supporting the away side's stronger overall profile.
  • Villaverde Norte's defensive record is poor, conceding five goals away from home, which explains why the model gives them only a 10% win probability.
  • Mensajero's away form is weak, losing their only away match without scoring, which justifies the draw being equally likely at 45%.
  • Both teams average under one goal per game, and no match has exceeded 3.5 goals, making the under 3.5 goals advice well supported.
  • The combined double chance of draw or Mensajero covers 90% of the model's probability, reflecting the low likelihood of a home victory.
  • Mensajero's goals are split between the 31-45 and 91-105 minute intervals, suggesting their scoring threat is sporadic rather than sustained.
Predicted winner
Mensajero
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : draw or Mensajero and -3.5 goals
Home win probability
10%
Draw probability
45%
Away win probability
45%
Goals market
-3.5

Prediction comparison

FactorVillaverde NorteMensajero
Form14.0%86.0%
Attack50.0%50.0%
Defence14.0%86.0%
Poisson100.0%0.0%
H2h0.0%0.0%
Goals0.0%0.0%
Total26.0%74.0%

Team form and goal analysis

Villaverde Norte

Recent form: LDL.

Average goals scored: 0.70 per match.

Mensajero

Recent form: WLW.

Average goals scored: 0.70 per match.

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.

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