Villarrobledo vs Noblejas Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Villarrobledo a 45% home win probability and a 45% draw probability, leaving Noblejas only 10%, which is why the advice is a double chance on Villarrobledo or draw rather than a straight home win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Villarrobledo's defensive score of 80.00 dwarfs Noblejas's 20.00 and their goals comparison reads 75.00 to 25.00, yet Noblejas edge the form (58.00 to 42.00), attack (55.00 to 45.00) and Poisson (52.00 to 48.00) measures. The head-to-head comparison is the most one-sided input at 100.00 to 0.00 in Villarrobledo's favour, but it rests on only two meetings, so it should be treated as a directional signal rather than a settled pattern. Those two matches split one apiece: Villarrobledo won 1-0 at home in December 2024, while Noblejas won 2-1 at home in April 2025, meaning the 100% h2h score reflects Villarrobledo's away goal and result profile rather than unbeaten dominance. Villarrobledo's own record shows a DDW sequence with one win, two draws and no defeats, built on two clean sheets and a 0-4 away win at Villarrubia, but their goals analysis reveals only 1.70 goals scored per game and a modest 0.30 conceded per game, with the single goal against arriving in the 31-45 window. Noblejas are also unbeaten across their three league games with a WDW sequence, scoring 2.00 goals per game but conceding 1.30, and their goals-against distribution is spread across four separate time bands, which hints at a less secure defensive structure than their results suggest. Their last-five records reinforce the contrast in style: Villarrobledo have three 0-0 draws alongside the 4-0 win, while Noblejas have scored in every listed match, including a 3-2 home win over Almansa and a 2-1 home win over Toledo. The tension between Villarrobledo's superior defensive and goals metrics and Noblejas's better form, attack and Poisson numbers is precisely what keeps the draw probability as high as the home win, so the double chance looks like a hedge against a low-scoring, evenly matched fixture rather than a confident call on either side.

Predicted winner

Villarrobledo

Betting advice

Double chance : Villarrobledo or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Noblejas 1–2 Villarrobledo (12 Apr 2025)
2. Villarrobledo 1–0 Noblejas (01 Dec 2024)