Villanueva Pardillo vs Alcobendas Sport Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw or an Alcobendas Sport win, assigning 45% to each of those outcomes and only 10% to a Villanueva Pardillo victory, so the double-chance advice reflects a clear but not overwhelming preference. That stance is anchored by the form comparison, where Alcobendas Sport registers 100.00 against Villanueva Pardillo's 0.00, although the underlying records show this is a small three-match sample rather than a settled trend. The defensive split reinforces the same direction, with Villanueva Pardillo at 17.00 and Alcobendas Sport at 83.00, yet the attack metric runs the other way at 67.00 versus 33.00, creating a genuine tension that the model resolves in favour of the away side. Both Poisson values sit at 0.00, so that component offers no independent discrimination, while the head-to-head, goals, and total splits are all close to even at 50/50, 50/50, and 46.00 against 54.00 respectively. Villanueva Pardillo's three league matches have all ended in defeat, including a 5-1 loss away to Colonia Moscardó and a 0-2 home defeat to SS Reyes II, leaving them with two goals scored and ten conceded across those games. Alcobendas Sport's current sequence of a draw, a loss, and a draw is less damaging, and their defensive record of two goals conceded in three matches contrasts sharply with Villanueva Pardillo's leakage, even though Alcobendas Sport have themselves failed to score in two of those three outings. The last-five lists add a cautionary note, since Villanueva Pardillo's two most recent entries are wins from May 2026, suggesting the current losing run may be a new-season effect rather than a long-term collapse. The head-to-head record is the strongest single counterweight to the away lean, as Alcobendas Sport have won four of the six meetings and Villanueva Pardillo only one, with the remaining match drawn, so the 50/50 split understates that historical edge. Overall, the evidence supports the draw-or-away advice through form, defence, and head-to-head, but the even goal and total metrics, the zero Poisson values, and Villanueva Pardillo's older wins mean the prediction should be treated as plausible rather than secure.

Predicted winner

Alcobendas Sport

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Alcobendas Sport

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Villanueva Pardillo 1–2 Alcobendas Sport (25 Jan 2026)
2. Alcobendas Sport 0–1 Villanueva Pardillo (13 Sep 2025)
3. Alcobendas Sport 0–1 Villanueva Pardillo (28 Jan 2024)
4. Villanueva Pardillo 1–1 Alcobendas Sport (10 Sep 2023)
5. Villanueva Pardillo 0–1 Alcobendas Sport (28 Feb 2021)