Villanovense vs Montijo Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Montijo a double-chance edge of draw or away win, with home, draw and away probabilities of 10%, 45% and 45%, so the advice rests on the near-equal draw and Montijo shares rather than a clear away superiority. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where form is level at 50.00 each and goals are also split 50.00–50.00, while Montijo's higher attack score of 67.00 against Villanovense's 33.00 is offset by Villanovense's stronger defence score of 67.00 against 33.00. The Poisson values are both 0.00, offering no separating signal, and the head-to-head comparison leans only mildly toward Montijo at 60.00 versus 40.00, while the total comparison is nearly even at 48.00 for Villanovense and 52.00 for Montijo. Both teams arrive with identical LLW form over three league fixtures, so the recent-record section does not clearly favour either side, although the underlying goal profiles differ. Villanovense have scored twice and conceded three, averaging 0.70 goals for and 1.00 against, with both goals coming in the first 30 minutes and two of their three concessions falling between the 46th and 60th minutes. Montijo have scored four and conceded six, averaging 1.30 for and 2.00 against, with their goals spread across the 31st–45th, 46th–60th and 76th–90th windows and their concessions arriving in the 16th–30th, 31st–45th and 76th–90th windows. The last-five records add further qualification: Villanovense's only win in that sequence was a 1–0 away success at Villafranca, while Montijo's most recent outing was a 3–1 home win over Guadiana but their away form includes a 2–0 loss at Azuaga. The head-to-head record is the most substantial evidence and shows home advantage dominating, with Villanovense winning 3–1 and 2–1 at home and Montijo winning 1–0, 1–0 and 2–1 at their own ground, plus a 1–1 draw at Villanovense in 2022. Because that pattern points to a narrow, venue-driven contest rather than a decisive Montijo edge, the draw-or-Montijo advice looks more like a hedge against a low-scoring, finely balanced match than a strong endorsement of the away side.

Predicted winner

Montijo

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Montijo

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Villanovense 3–1 Montijo (22 Mar 2026)
2. Montijo 1–0 Villanovense (09 Nov 2025)
3. Montijo 1–0 Villanovense (04 Feb 2024)
4. Villanovense 2–1 Montijo (24 Sep 2023)
5. Montijo 2–1 Villanovense (30 Apr 2023)