Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 18
Villacañas vs Toledo Prediction
Villacañas vs 
Toledo
Match prediction
- Toledo's attack and goal metrics clearly outrank Villacañas, supporting the model's 45% away win probability.
- The equal 45% draw probability justifies the double-chance advice, since Villacañas's solid defence could hold Toledo to a stalemate.
- Villacañas's strong defensive record and clean sheets suggest the 10% home win probability may undervalue their chances of an upset.
- Toledo's superior head-to-head record, including recent wins, reinforces their status as the favoured side despite playing away.
- Both teams show identical recent form, but Toledo's higher goal output indicates greater attacking threat in this matchup.
- The narrow gap between away win and draw probabilities means the double chance is the safer expression of Toledo's edge.
- Predicted winner
- Toledo
- Betting advice
- Double chance : draw or Toledo
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Villacañas | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Attack | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Defence | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Poisson | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Goals | 23.0% | 77.0% |
| Total | 43.4% | 56.6% |
Team form and goal analysis
Villacañas
Recent form: WLDW.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Toledo
Recent form: WDLW.
Average goals scored: 2.50 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Toledo 4–0 Villacañas (18 Apr 2026)
- Villacañas 0–2 Toledo (06 Dec 2025)
- Toledo 1–2 Villacañas (25 May 2025)
- Villacañas 1–0 Toledo (17 May 2025)
- Toledo 3–0 Villacañas (16 Feb 2025)