Villa Dalmine vs UAI Urquiza Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Villa Dalmine with a win-or-draw call and a combined under -3.5 goals advice, though its own probabilities are nearly flat at 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the edge is modest rather than decisive. The comparison metrics reinforce that split: Villa Dalmine leads on form (63 versus 38), defence (58 versus 42) and Poisson (75 versus 25), while UAI Urquiza surprisingly leads on head-to-head (62 versus 38) and goals (67 versus 33), with attack level at 50 apiece. That tension matters because the Poisson and form signals point to the home side, yet the goals and head-to-head signals point the other way, which is consistent with a draw being almost as likely as a home win. Villa Dalmine's season record of 17 wins, 12 draws and only 7 losses across 36 matches, with 19 clean sheets and a 0.60 goals-against average, supports the defensive half of the advice, and their last five show two 0-0 draws plus a 3-1 win and two defeats, suggesting a low-scoring but not invulnerable team. UAI Urquiza's profile is far more passive: just 4 wins, 19 draws and 13 losses, only 18 goals scored at 0.50 per game, 23 failures to score and a 0.90 goals-against average, which explains why the goals comparison favours them only in relative terms rather than as an attacking threat. Their last five are similarly muted, with a 2-0 win over Argentino de Merlo the only bright spot amid three defeats and a 1-2 loss to Excursionistas, so neither side arrives in convincing scoring form. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the home lean, since UAI Urquiza have won three of the last ten meetings and Villa Dalmine only two, with five draws including 0-0 in May 2026 and 0-0 in March 2024, and the most recent Villa Dalmine home fixture in this series ended 0-1 to the visitors. The goals analysis supports the under -3.5 element strongly, as Villa Dalmine have gone under 3.5 in 35 of 36 matches and UAI Urquiza in all 36, while both teams' goal distributions cluster in the 31-45 and 76-90 windows rather than suggesting a high-scoring blowout. Overall, the evidence jointly supports a cautious home-or-draw position with few goals, but the flat probabilities, UAI Urquiza's head-to-head edge and the small five-match samples mean this should be treated as a marginal, uncertain read rather than a confident one.

Predicted winner

Villa Dalmine

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Villa Dalmine or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. UAI Urquiza 0–0 Villa Dalmine (16 May 2026)
2. UAI Urquiza 1–0 Villa Dalmine (09 Jul 2025)
3. Villa Dalmine 0–1 UAI Urquiza (18 Feb 2025)
4. Villa Dalmine 1–0 UAI Urquiza (22 Jul 2024)
5. UAI Urquiza 0–0 Villa Dalmine (03 Mar 2024)