Vila Nova vs Cuiaba Prediction
· Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga
OUR RECOMMENDATIONDouble chance : Vila Nova or draw
Match prediction
- Vila Nova's strong home record and superior defensive metrics support the double-chance advice, though the draw probability equal to the home win tempers outright confidence.
- Cuiaba's away form is notably weaker, with seven away defeats and a low away scoring average, reinforcing the protection the draw option provides.
- The head-to-head record favors Cuiaba overall, a conflicting signal that justifies the cautious double-chance approach rather than a straight home win.
- Both teams' recent matches show low-scoring tendencies, making a draw a realistic outcome and validating the advice's inclusion of that result.
- Vila Nova's home attack significantly outperforms its away scoring, suggesting the venue amplifies its advantage and strengthens the home-or-draw case.
- Cuiaba's defensive solidity at home contrasts with vulnerability away, so the model's near-even home and draw probabilities reflect genuine uncertainty.
- Predicted winner
- Vila Nova
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Vila Nova or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Vila Nova | Cuiaba |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Attack | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Defence | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Poisson | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| H2h | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Goals | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Total | 54.2% | 45.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
Vila Nova
Recent form: DDWWWDDLWWWWLWLWLLWLLWWDWLWDWWW.
Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.
Cuiaba
Recent form: DDLDWDDDDLWWWLDWDLLDDWWDWLWDWLW.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova (14 Jun 2026)
- Vila Nova 2–2 Cuiaba (25 Sep 2025)
- Cuiaba 1–0 Vila Nova (27 May 2025)
- Cuiaba 4–2 Vila Nova (12 May 2024)
- Vila Nova 2–0 Cuiaba (18 Apr 2024)