Viking II vs Våg Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Viking II a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against Våg's 10%, framing the advice as a double chance on Viking II or draw rather than an outright home win. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Viking II leads on form (53 vs 47), attack (55 vs 45), defence (56 vs 44), goals (54 vs 46) and especially Poisson (88 vs 12), yet the head-to-head split of 67 to 33 is the narrowest of these edges and hints at Våg's capacity to disrupt. The team analysis sharpens the contrast: Viking II's 9-5-6 record is built almost entirely at home, with 8 wins, 2 draws and no defeats in 10 home matches, while Våg's 7-2-11 includes only 2 away wins and 6 away losses. Viking II's goals analysis reinforces that home dominance, averaging 3.70 scored and 0.70 conceded at home versus 1.30 and 2.10 away, whereas Våg are a flat 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded overall, so the venue effect appears to be the single largest driver behind the probabilities. The last-five records qualify the picture, though: Viking II have two wins, two draws and a loss in that span, including a 1-3 defeat at Brodd, while Våg have two wins, a draw and two losses, with a 3-0 away win at Haugesund II showing they are not harmless on the road. The head-to-head record is the most direct counterweight, since Våg won the most recent meeting 3-2 in June 2026 and also won 3-2 at Lyse Arena in May 2025, meaning Viking II's only head-to-head success in this sample was a 2-1 away win in August 2025. That three-match sample is small and mixes seasons and divisions, so it should temper rather than overturn the broader home-form evidence, especially as Viking II's home record shows no defeats at all. The goal-timing data adds a further qualifier: Viking II score 32.65% of their goals in the 46-60 window and concede 24% in the 61-75 window, while Våg concede 28.57% in the 61-75 window, suggesting late-game swings could keep a draw plausible despite Viking II's overall edge. Overall, the evidence supports the double-chance advice as a hedge rather than a confident home win, because Viking II's home strength and superior metrics point one way while the recent head-to-head results and the 45% draw probability point another.

Predicted winner

Viking II

Betting advice

Double chance : Viking II or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Våg 3–2 Viking II (25 Jun 2026)
2. Våg 1–2 Viking II (18 Aug 2025)
3. Viking II 3–2 Våg (03 May 2025)