Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output gives Vigor Senigallia a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against Fossombrone, leaving only 10% for an away win, which is why the advice is a double chance on Vigor Senigallia or draw. That stance is broadly reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Vigor Senigallia leads on form (67 vs 33), attack (67 vs 33), defence (69 vs 31), head-to-head (64 vs 36) and overall total (64.40 vs 35.60), while the Poisson split of 100 to 0 is an extreme reading that should be treated as a model artefact rather than a literal certainty. The goals comparison is the main qualifier, since it is much closer at 55 to 45, suggesting the two sides are not as far apart in scoring output as the other categories imply. Vigor Senigallia's team analysis shows a perfect four-win record with no draws or defeats, including a 1-0 home win and a 5-2 away win, plus one clean sheet and no failures to score, although the small sample of only one home fixture limits how much can be read into their home-specific numbers. Fossombrone's record is far more volatile at two wins and two losses, with both defeats coming at home, including a 0-4 loss, while both wins came away, and their away goals-against average of 0.50 contrasts sharply with their home average of 4.00. The goals analysis adds nuance: Vigor Senigallia average 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, with their goals spread fairly evenly across the match, whereas Fossombrone average 1.30 scored and 2.30 conceded, and 44.44% of the goals they concede arrive in the 76-90 minute window. The last-five records echo this pattern, as Vigor Senigallia have won four straight before an older draw, while Fossombrone alternate wins and losses, including a 0-3 defeat to Cesena and a 0-4 home loss to L'Aquila. The head-to-head record is the strongest counterweight to the prediction, because the last seven meetings produced five draws, including 0-0 and 2-2 results, with Fossombrone winning once and Vigor Senigallia winning once, which helps explain why the draw probability is as high as the home win probability. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance advice through Vigor Senigallia's form, defensive edge and head-to-head balance, but the narrow goals comparison and the frequent draws between these teams mean the draw leg carries much of the weight, and the extreme Poisson figure should not be read as a guarantee.

Predicted winner

Vigor Senigallia

Betting advice

Double chance : Vigor Senigallia or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Vigor Senigallia 0–0 Fossombrone (08 Feb 2026)
2. Fossombrone 1–2 Vigor Senigallia (05 Oct 2025)
3. Fossombrone 0–0 Vigor Senigallia (31 Aug 2025)
4. Vigor Senigallia 2–2 Fossombrone (27 Apr 2025)
5. Fossombrone 2–2 Vigor Senigallia (15 Dec 2024)