Vidar vs Mjondalen Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output gives Mjondalen a double chance of draw or away win, with the probabilities split evenly at 50% draw and 50% away and no home win probability assigned, so the advice is effectively a cautious lean away from Vidar rather than a confident away victory. That caution is consistent with the comparison metrics, where Mjondalen leads on form (69 versus 31), attack (62 versus 38), defence (60 versus 40), Poisson (72 versus 28), goals (100 versus 0) and overall total (65.8 versus 34.3), while the head-to-head component is a perfect 100 to 0 in Mjondalen's favour. The team analysis reinforces this gap over a substantial 20-match sample: Vidar have 2 wins, 4 draws and 14 defeats with a goal difference of 18 scored to 53 conceded, whereas Mjondalen have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats with 36 scored and 27 conceded. Vidar's defensive record is especially poor, averaging 2.70 goals against per match and keeping only one clean sheet all season, which helps explain why the model assigns them no win probability despite home advantage. Mjondalen's profile is not flawless, though, since they average 1.80 goals for and 1.40 against, and their away form is weaker than their home form with 5 away wins against 4 away defeats, so the 50% away probability already prices in some vulnerability. The last-five records add a conflicting short-term signal: Vidar have one win, one draw and three defeats, including a 1-0 away win at Sandviken, while Mjondalen have two wins and three defeats, all three losses coming without scoring, which shows Mjondalen's recent run is less dominant than their season-long numbers suggest. The head-to-head record is extremely thin, consisting of a single 2026 match in which Mjondalen beat Vidar 2-0 at home, so the 100% head-to-head and goals scores should be treated as a small-sample artefact rather than strong independent proof. The goals analysis further qualifies the picture: Vidar's matches have gone over 2.5 goals only once in 20 and they have failed to score in 7 of 20, while Mjondalen have gone over 2.5 in 6 of 20 and failed to score in 6 of 20, suggesting a low-scoring contest is plausible even if Mjondalen are the stronger side. Overall, the season-long performance, comparison metrics and the single head-to-head result jointly support the draw-or-Mjondalen advice, but the even 50-50 split, Mjondalen's three scoreless defeats in their last five and Vidar's recent away win mean the existing prediction should be read as a modest lean rather than a certainty.

Predicted winner

Mjondalen

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Mjondalen

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Mjondalen 2–0 Vidar (10 May 2026)