Valenciennes vs Le Puy Foot Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Le Puy Foot a double chance at draw or away win, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for a Valenciennes home win. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Le Puy leads on form (78 versus 22), attack (58 versus 42), defence (57 versus 43) and goals (67 versus 33), though the Poisson metric is a notable counterweight favouring Valenciennes 69 to 31. The head-to-head comparison is perfectly balanced at 50-50, and the two recorded meetings split one win each, so recent history offers no clear separation and slightly qualifies the away-leaning advice. Valenciennes' form string of LWLDDLL and a last-five run of three defeats, one draw and one loss-heavy sequence reflect a side struggling for results, with only one win in seven and a 4-0 away loss among their worst results. Le Puy's WLWLDLW is more volatile but more productive, with three wins in seven, a 4-1 home win and a 0-2 away win showing they can score and win in different settings, even if three away defeats expose their road vulnerability. The goals analysis sharpens this contrast: Valenciennes average 1.00 scored but 1.70 conceded overall, inflated by 2.50 conceded per away game, while Le Puy average 1.30 scored and 1.00 conceded, with a much tighter 0.70 against at home. Le Puy's scoring is concentrated in the 16-45 window (about 78% of their goals), whereas Valenciennes spread goals late, with 37.5% in the 76-90 range, suggesting different timing patterns rather than a single dominant phase. Both teams' under-over profiles lean low-scoring, as neither has exceeded 2.5 goals in any of their seven matches, which supports the draw component of the advice more than a high-scoring away win. The main tension is therefore between Le Puy's superior form, attack and defensive numbers and the Poisson model's home favouritism, a conflict that the even head-to-head record and Valenciennes' home clean sheets do not fully resolve.

Predicted winner

Le Puy Foot

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Le Puy Foot

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Le Puy Foot 3–0 Valenciennes (23 Jan 2026)
2. Valenciennes 2–1 Le Puy Foot (15 Aug 2025)