Spain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3

Valencia II vs Peña Deportiva Prediction

Valencia II badgeValencia II vs Peña Deportiva badgePeña Deportiva

Match prediction

  • Both sides sit on identical form and defence scores, so the model's split 35-35-35 probabilities reflect genuine uncertainty rather than a clear edge.
  • Valencia II's attack rating of 67 against Peña Deportiva's 33 is the strongest differentiator, supporting the home-or-draw side of the advice.
  • Peña Deportiva's head-to-head and goals scores favour them, but those edges rest on small samples and do not overturn the near-even win probabilities.
  • Neither team has won in four matches and both have failed to keep a clean sheet, which supports the draw leg of the double chance.
  • Every match for both teams has stayed under 3.5 goals, directly reinforcing the -3.5 goals component of the advice.
  • Peña Deportiva have failed to score in three of four games and average just 0.30 goals, strengthening the case for a low-scoring home-or-draw outcome.
Predicted winner
Valencia II
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : Valencia II or draw and -3.5 goals
Home win probability
35%
Draw probability
35%
Away win probability
30%
Goals market
-3.5

Prediction comparison

FactorValencia IIPeña Deportiva
Form50.0%50.0%
Attack67.0%33.0%
Defence50.0%50.0%
Poisson100.0%0.0%
H2h40.0%60.0%
Goals40.0%60.0%
Total49.4%50.6%

Team form and goal analysis

Valencia II

Recent form: DLLL.

Average goals scored: 0.50 per match.

Peña Deportiva

Recent form: LDLL.

Average goals scored: 0.30 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Valencia II 2–0 Peña Deportiva (16 Feb 2025)
  2. Peña Deportiva 3–0 Valencia II (06 Oct 2024)
  3. Valencia II 1–0 Peña Deportiva (04 Feb 2024)
  4. Peña Deportiva 2–1 Valencia II (24 Sep 2023)
  5. Peña Deportiva 1–0 Valencia II (07 May 2023)
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