Utiel vs Roda Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a double chance on Utiel or draw, with home and draw each at 35% against Roda's 30%, a narrow edge that the comparison metrics both support and complicate. Roda clearly leads on form (67 versus 33) and attack (80 versus 20), which suggests the away side carries more momentum and scoring threat, yet Utiel counters with better defence (57 versus 43), Poisson (61 versus 39), head-to-head (62 versus 38) and goals (56 versus 44) ratings, so the aggregate total of 48.20 to 51.80 is nearly level and explains why no outright winner is advised. The team analysis reinforces this tension: Utiel's three league games produced two draws and one loss without a win, while Roda won one, drew one and lost one, meaning both are short, low-volume samples rather than settled form lines. Utiel's goal profile is especially thin, with just one goal scored across three matches at 0.30 per game and two failures to score, although they have conceded only once per game on average and kept one clean sheet. Roda have scored four goals at 1.30 per game and found the net in every match, but their defensive average of 1.30 conceded, including two away goals per game, leaves them vulnerable. The last-five records echo this: Utiel's recent run is D-L-D with a 0-2 loss at Soneja and a 0-0 draw, while Roda's is D-L-W with a 1-1 home draw against Crevillente and a 1-2 away defeat at Villarreal III, so neither arrives in convincing form. The head-to-head record is the strongest single counterweight to Roda's form advantage, since Utiel have won the two most recent meetings 2-0 at home and lost only 3-1 away, and they also won 2-1 in the 2025 play-offs, though Roda's 3-1 home wins in 2024 and 2026 show the fixture can swing either way. Overall, the evidence points to a genuinely balanced, low-scoring contest in which Utiel's defensive solidity and head-to-head edge slightly justify the draw-inclusive advice, but Roda's superior attacking output and form mean that edge is fragile rather than secure.

Predicted winner

Utiel

Betting advice

Double chance : Utiel or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Roda 3–1 Utiel (18 Apr 2026)
2. Utiel 2–0 Roda (21 Jan 2026)
3. Roda 0–0 Utiel (24 May 2025)
4. Utiel 2–1 Roda (18 May 2025)
5. Utiel 0–0 Roda (23 Feb 2025)