USV Iaşi vs Gheorgheni Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model favours USV Iaşi via a double-chance call of win or draw, with home and draw probabilities both at 45% against only 10% for Gheorgheni, so the advice rests on the near-certainty that the visitors do not win rather than on a strong home victory. That framing is supported by the comparison metrics, where USV Iaşi lead form 68 to 32, defence 75 to 25 and Poisson 74 to 26, while Gheorgheni counter with edges in attack (56 to 44) and goals (60 to 40), leaving the overall totals closer at 58.5 to 41.5. The head-to-head split is perfectly even at 50–50, which tempers any assumption of home dominance, and the three meetings show why: Gheorgheni won 2–0 at home in April 2026, USV Iaşi won 1–0 away in March 2026, and the October 2025 fixture in Iaşi finished 1–1. USV Iaşi's form line of WDWWW over five matches, with four wins and one draw, aligns with their superior form and defensive scores, and their goals analysis reinforces that solidity: 1.40 scored and just 0.60 conceded per game, with only three goals against across five outings. Gheorgheni's LLWLW record is more volatile, and their goals data explains the split in the comparison metrics, since they average a higher 1.80 scored but also 1.80 conceded, including 3.00 per away game, which is the weakness the defensive metric penalises. The last-five records sharpen this contrast: USV Iaşi have conceded at most one goal in every match, keeping two clean sheets, whereas Gheorgheni's away defeats include a 4–2 loss at Târgu Secuiesc and a 2–1 loss at Aerostar Bacau, suggesting their attacking threat travels poorly. The goal-timing data is only partially populated, with USV Iaşi's two recorded goals split evenly between the 31–45 and 76–90 windows and their one timed concession in the 31–45 window, while Gheorgheni have no minute-level entries at all, so no timing pattern can be inferred for them. Overall, the evidence points to a low-scoring, defensively controlled home profile against a visitor who scores but leaks heavily on the road, which supports the draw-inclusive advice while the even head-to-head and Gheorgheni's superior raw goal output keep a share of doubt alive.

Predicted winner

USV Iaşi

Betting advice

Double chance : USV Iaşi or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Gheorgheni 2–0 USV Iaşi (10 Apr 2026)
2. Gheorgheni 0–1 USV Iaşi (07 Mar 2026)
3. USV Iaşi 1–1 Gheorgheni (10 Oct 2025)