Ustrem Donchevo vs Septemvri Tervel Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Septemvri Tervel with a "win or draw" call and a combo advice of draw-or-Septemvri plus over 1.5 goals, though the 45% draw and 45% away probabilities show the outright edge is thin while the 10% home share is minimal. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Septemvri's form (100.00) and defence (83.00) dwarf Ustrem's (0.00 and 17.00), and the head-to-head split (85.00 versus 15.00) and goals split (82.00 versus 18.00) point the same direction, even as attack sits level at 50.00 for both and the Poisson values are both 0.00, offering no separation. Ustrem's team analysis is stark: six played, six lost, a six-match losing streak, no clean sheets, and heavy defeats such as 5-1 away and 2-4 at home, which explains the low form and defensive scores. Septemvri's record is far shorter and entirely home-based — three matches yielding two wins and a draw, including a 5-2 win, with no away fixtures played — so the 100.00 form figure rests on a small, venue-skewed sample that may overstate their readiness on the road. The goals analysis adds nuance: Ustrem concede 3.80 per game overall (4.00 away, 3.70 home) and have gone over 2.5 goals against in all six matches, while Septemvri score 2.70 per game but only at home and concede just 1.30, so the over 1.5 component looks well supported even if the exact margin is uncertain. The last-five records confirm the divergence, with Ustrem losing all five while scoring in each (2-3, 2-4, 1-4, 2-3, 1-5) and Septemvri showing W-W-D-W-L across a mix of home fixtures and older matches, including a 0-1 loss to Ludogorets III. The head-to-head record over ten meetings is more balanced than the aggregate suggests, featuring three draws (including 0-0 in March 2026 and 0-0 in 2024), several Septemvri home wins (4-1, 1-0, 5-1, 2-1, 1-0), and two Ustrem home wins by 4-1 and 1-0, which supports the draw-or-away framing rather than a guaranteed away victory. Overall, the evidence jointly supports the existing double-chance and over 1.5 advice, but the thin probability gap, Septemvri's unplayed away schedule, and the recurring head-to-head draws mean the outcome should be treated as uncertain rather than assured.

Predicted winner

Septemvri Tervel

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Septemvri Tervel and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ustrem Donchevo 0–0 Septemvri Tervel (21 Mar 2026)
2. Septemvri Tervel 4–1 Ustrem Donchevo (13 Sep 2025)
3. Septemvri Tervel 1–0 Ustrem Donchevo (08 Mar 2025)
4. Ustrem Donchevo 1–4 Septemvri Tervel (31 Aug 2024)
5. Ustrem Donchevo 0–0 Septemvri Tervel (10 Mar 2024)