Ústí nad Labem II vs Újezd Praha 4 Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Újezd Praha 4 with a "win or draw" double chance and a +1.5 goals line, assigning 45% to both the away win and the draw while leaving the home side at just 10%. That split is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where the away team dominates form (75 versus 25), attack (57 versus 43), defence (62 versus 38), Poisson (78 versus 22), goals (85 versus 15) and the overall total (74.7 versus 25.3), with the head-to-head split (91 versus 9) the most lopsided of all. The head-to-head record nonetheless complicates a simple away-win reading, since the most recent meeting in May 2026 finished 1-1 and the August 2024 fixture saw Ústí nad Labem II win 3-0, even though Újezd Praha 4 took the other two encounters 2-1 and 5-0. Form lines pull in opposite directions: Ústí nad Labem II show a mixed DWLWWLW sequence with four wins from seven, while Újezd Praha 4 sit on LDLLWLL with only one win and five defeats from seven, so the away side's high form rating rests on a small and inconsistent sample. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast, as Ústí nad Labem II average 2.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match, whereas Újezd Praha 4 average just 1.00 scored but 3.30 conceded, including 3.00 at home and 3.50 away. That defensive fragility is visible in the last five, where Újezd Praha 4 lost 4-1 at Karlovy Vary and 2-0 at home to Sokol Hostouň, yet also won 2-1 away at Brandýs nad Labem and Tempo Praha, while Ústí nad Labem II conceded four and five in recent defeats to Brandýs nad Labem and Chomutov. The over/under distributions support the +1.5 goals element, with Ústí nad Labem II seeing over 1.5 goals in five of seven matches and Újezd Praha 4 conceding in every one of their seven games, though the away side's own scoring has stayed under 1.5 in five of seven. Overall, the evidence points toward the away team avoiding defeat and a multi-goal game, but the recent 1-1 head-to-head draw, Ústí nad Labem II's four wins, and Újezd Praha 4's poor form and leaky defence mean the draw component of the advice carries real weight rather than being a formality.

Predicted winner

Újezd Praha 4

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Újezd Praha 4 and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ústí nad Labem II 1–1 Újezd Praha 4 (16 May 2026)
2. Újezd Praha 4 2–1 Ústí nad Labem II (18 Oct 2025)
3. Újezd Praha 4 5–0 Ústí nad Labem II (22 Mar 2025)
4. Ústí nad Labem II 0–3 Újezd Praha 4 (25 Aug 2024)