USA vs Peru Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Peru a 45% win probability and the draw another 45%, leaving the USA at just 10%, which frames the advice of a draw-or-Peru double chance with over 1.5 goals as a cautious lean toward the visitors rather than a strong outright call. That lean is only partly echoed in the comparison metrics, where Peru's superior form (57 vs 43) and defence (58 vs 42) and a notably stronger Poisson rating (65 vs 35) point their way, while the USA's higher attack score (55 vs 45) and the dead-even head-to-head, goals and 50-50 split in the overall totals (45.8 vs 54.2) keep the picture from being one-sided. The team analysis complicates the form reading, since the USA's recent record of LLWL over four home fixtures includes three defeats and a 2-5 loss, yet also a 3-2 win, whereas Peru's LDWL across two home and two away games is more balanced but built on modest scoring. The goals data sharpen this tension: the USA have scored 1.50 per game but conceded 2.80, with 11 goals against in four matches and a striking 45.45% of those conceded in the 46-60 minute window, while Peru average 1.30 scored and 2.00 conceded, so both defences look leaky enough to support the over 1.5 element of the advice. Peru's goal distribution is also late-weighted, with 33.33% of their goals in the 46-60 band and another 33.33% in the 76-90 band, which suggests their threat may build as matches progress rather than arrive early. The last-five records add a cautionary note about small samples: the USA's sequence includes three wins (2-0 over Bosnia & Herzegovina, 2-0 over Australia, 4-1 over Paraguay) alongside heavy defeats to Belgium and Türkiye, while Peru's shows wins over Haiti and Bolivia, a draw with Honduras and losses to Spain and Senegal, so neither run is consistently convincing. The head-to-head section offers almost no separating signal, consisting of a single 2018 friendly that finished 1-1, which is far too small a sample to reinforce or contradict the model's Peru lean. Taken together, the evidence supports the double-chance framing more than any confident Peru victory, because the USA's attacking output and Peru's defensive concessions both argue for goals, while the near-even head-to-head and totals scores mean the draw component of the advice carries real weight.

Predicted winner

Peru

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Peru and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. USA 1–1 Peru (17 Oct 2018)