Russia · Second League - Group 4
Ural II vs Nosta Prediction
Match prediction
- The model splits home and draw evenly at 45%, so the double-chance advice mainly reflects Nosta's very low 10% win probability.
- Ural II's stronger head-to-head and Poisson scores support avoiding defeat, though their poor recent form and weak defence temper outright home confidence.
- Nosta's away record is the clearest weakness, with nine away losses, seven away games without scoring, and no away clean sheets.
- Both attacks score at similar rates, but Nosta's away defence concedes 2.8 goals per game, which raises Ural II's chance of avoiding defeat.
- Recent form favours Nosta with two straight home wins, yet both came at home and their away form remains unreliable.
- The last head-to-head was a 1-0 Ural II away win, reinforcing the model's view that Nosta are unlikely to win.
- Predicted winner
- Ural II
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Ural II or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Ural II | Nosta |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| Attack | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Defence | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| Poisson | 66.0% | 34.0% |
| H2h | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Goals | 64.0% | 36.0% |
| Total | 52.2% | 47.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
Ural II
Recent form: DDLWLDDLLWWWLDLDDLLLLWLWDLL.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Nosta
Recent form: LDWLDLLLLDLLLDLWLDLWWDWLLWW.
Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Nosta 0–1 Ural II (06 Sep 2026)
- Ural II 1–2 Nosta (16 Aug 2026)
- Nosta 0–2 Ural II (07 Jun 2026)
- Ural II 1–0 Nosta (07 Sep 2025)
- Nosta 2–2 Ural II (01 Jun 2025)