Union San Felipe vs Deportes Iquique Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% away win and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, though the equal split signals genuine uncertainty rather than clear away dominance.
• Iquique's superior form, attack, defence and Poisson ratings support their edge, but the modest 56% Poisson share explains why a draw is equally likely.
• Union San Felipe's weak scoring, including fourteen failed-to-score matches, makes a home win unlikely and reinforces the low 10% home probability.
• Both teams' goal distributions heavily favour under 3.5, with San Felipe never exceeding that line and Iquique doing so only three times.
• The head-to-head record is perfectly balanced at 50%, cautioning against reading Iquique's recent 5-0 win as sustained dominance.
• Iquique's poor away defence, conceding 2.5 goals per away game, qualifies the double chance by showing they remain vulnerable on the road.

Predicted winner

Deportes Iquique

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Deportes Iquique and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Deportes Iquique 5–0 Union San Felipe (22 Feb 2026)
2. Union San Felipe 1–1 Deportes Iquique (13 Aug 2023)
3. Deportes Iquique 1–2 Union San Felipe (26 Mar 2023)
4. Deportes Iquique 3–0 Union San Felipe (22 Oct 2022)
5. Union San Felipe 2–0 Deportes Iquique (21 May 2022)