Union San Felipe vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Union San Felipe via a double chance at 45% home and 45% draw against only 10% for Deportes Copiapo, and the accompanying advice pairs that with a -3.5 goals line, so the two components need to be read together rather than as independent claims. The comparison metrics are internally conflicted: Union San Felipe lead on form (56 vs 44), defence (75 vs 25), Poisson (62 vs 38) and goals (56 vs 44), yet Deportes Copiapo dominate attack (88 vs 13), which suggests the home edge rests more on defensive solidity and modelling than on offensive superiority. That tension is explained by the team analysis, where Union San Felipe have 7 clean sheets and only 15 goals scored in 23 matches, while Copiapo have scored 33 in 24 but conceded 38, including a 0-4 home loss and a 4-0 away defeat. The goals analysis reinforces the low-scoring case for the home side, with Union San Felipe averaging 0.70 goals for and 0.50 against at home and going under 3.5 goals in all 23 matches, whereas Copiapo average 1.40 for and 1.60 against overall with 4 of 24 matches over 3.5. Recent form complicates the picture: Union San Felipe's last five produced two 0-0 draws, two defeats and a 1-0 win, meaning they have scored just once in five, while Copiapo's last five include a 4-0 win over Curico Unido but also a 0-4 home loss to Antofagasta and three defeats. The head-to-head record is genuinely balanced at 50-50 in the comparison and shows no clear pattern across ten meetings, with Copiapo winning 2-1 in May 2026, a 0-0 draw in 2025, and Union San Felipe winning 1-0 at home in March 2025. Taken together, the evidence supports the double-chance logic mainly because Copiapo's away record is poor (2 wins, 6 losses, 1.80 goals conceded per away match) and Union San Felipe are hard to beat at home (only 2 home defeats), but the -3.5 goals component looks well supported by both teams' under-3.5 profiles rather than by any expectation of a high-scoring home display. The main qualification is that Union San Felipe's attack is weak enough that a single Copiapo goal could flip the match, and the 45% draw probability already acknowledges how often these low-scoring home performances end level.

Predicted winner

Union San Felipe

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Union San Felipe or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Deportes Copiapo 2–1 Union San Felipe (10 May 2026)
2. Deportes Copiapo 0–0 Union San Felipe (03 Aug 2025)
3. Union San Felipe 0–1 Deportes Copiapo (14 Mar 2025)
4. Union San Felipe 3–1 Deportes Copiapo (09 Jul 2022)
5. Deportes Copiapo 0–1 Union San Felipe (26 May 2022)