UKS Łódź W vs Pogon Szczecin W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives UKS Łódź W only a 10% home win probability while splitting the remaining 90% evenly between a draw and a Pogon Szczecin W away win, which is why the advice backs the double chance of draw or Pogon Szczecin W rather than a straight away victory. That caution is echoed in the comparison metrics, where Pogon lead on form (82 versus 18), attack (87 versus 13), Poisson (80 versus 20), head-to-head (71 versus 29) and goals (90 versus 10), yet the defence gap is far narrower at 53 versus 47, hinting the home side is not equally weak in every phase. The team analysis supports that asymmetry: UKS Łódź have no wins in four matches (two draws, two losses) and have failed to score twice, while Pogon have three wins from five, have never failed to score, and have produced a 5-0 home win and a 4-1 away win. Their goal records diverge sharply, with UKS Łódź averaging 0.50 goals for and 2.00 against per match compared with Pogon's 2.60 for and 1.40 against, so the away side's edge looks driven more by scoring output than by defensive solidity. The last-five records reinforce this but also introduce noise: UKS Łódź's sequence includes a 5-0 loss at Czarni Sosnowiec W and a 1-2 home defeat, yet also a 0-0 home draw and a 1-1 away draw, showing they can occasionally keep a match tight. Pogon's last five are more volatile than their aggregate suggests, with a 1-2 loss at Akademia Piłkarska LG W and a 1-3 home loss to Górnik Łęczna W interrupting wins over Śląsk Wrocław W, UJ Kraków W and Legia W. The head-to-head record is the strongest single strand for the away side, since Pogon have won four of the six meetings, including 3-0 and 1-0 victories at UKS Łódź and a 5-0 home win, with the only draw coming in May 2024 and UKS Łódź's sole win a 1-0 home result in May 2025. Because the probabilities still assign 45% to a draw, the model is effectively acknowledging that UKS Łódź's tendency to draw and Pogon's two recent defeats make a share of the points plausible, even though the weight of form, goals and head-to-head evidence points toward Pogon avoiding defeat.

Predicted winner

Pogon Szczecin W

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Pogon Szczecin W

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. UKS Łódź W 0–3 Pogon Szczecin W (22 Feb 2026)
2. Pogon Szczecin W 5–0 UKS Łódź W (09 Aug 2025)
3. UKS Łódź W 0–1 Pogon Szczecin W (03 May 2025)
4. Pogon Szczecin W 0–1 UKS Łódź W (12 Oct 2024)
5. Pogon Szczecin W 0–0 UKS Łódź W (05 May 2024)