Ukraine U21 vs Turkey U21 Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw or Turkey U21 win, assigning 45% to each of those outcomes against only 10% for a Ukraine U21 victory, and the double-chance advice reflects that same balance. That stance is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Turkey hold clear edges in form (67 versus 33) and defence (58 versus 42), while attack is level at 50 and the head-to-head, goals and total columns all tilt heavily toward Turkey at 100 versus 0 for Ukraine. The Poisson estimate is the main counterweight, favouring Ukraine 59 to 41, which suggests the model's own goal-based simulation sees a closer or even home-leaning match than the categorical metrics imply. Turkey's six-match record of three wins, two draws and one loss, including a 1-0 home win over Ukraine in November 2025, supports the away-leaning advice, though their away form is more fragile, with a 3-0 loss to Croatia and a 1.70 away goals-against average. Ukraine's record of two wins, two draws and two losses is less convincing, and their last five show three defeats, including 3-0 to Japan and 1-3 to the USA, alongside a 2-1 win in Hungary and a 1-1 home draw with Lithuania. Turkey's last five are steadier, with wins over Kosovo, Lithuania and Ukraine plus a draw in Hungary, the only blemish being that 3-0 defeat in Croatia. The goals analysis adds nuance: Ukraine average 1.70 goals scored but concede 1.20 overall and 2.00 at home, while Turkey score only 1.20 but concede just 1.00 overall and 0.30 at home, so Turkey's defensive solidity contrasts with Ukraine's leakier home record. Both teams' scoring is concentrated late, with Ukraine netting 70% of goals after the 61st minute and Turkey 57% in the same window, which could keep the match tight for long spells and make the draw component of the advice plausible. The head-to-head section contains only a single match, so the 100% Turkey edge is a very small sample and should be treated as suggestive rather than decisive, especially given the Poisson conflict.

Predicted winner

Turkey U21

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Turkey U21

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Turkey U21 1–0 Ukraine U21 (14 Nov 2025)