UD Santa Marta vs Cultural Leonesa II Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% away win and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, though the equal split signals genuine uncertainty rather than clear away superiority.
• Cultural Leonesa II's four clean sheets in four matches anchor the -3.5 goals advice, since their defensive record directly suppresses expected total scoring.
• Santa Marta's attack-versus-defence split is extreme: 60 attack but 0 defence, reflecting two home clean sheets alongside a 3-0 away loss.
• Head-to-head favours Cultural Leonesa II at 71%, yet recent meetings were low-scoring and often decided by a single goal, supporting the cautious draw-inclusive advice.
• Both teams' goal distributions cluster heavily in the 76-90 window, suggesting late goals could threaten the under 3.5 line despite low averages.
• Santa Marta's two straight losses contrast with Cultural Leonesa II's unbeaten four-match run, reinforcing the away-leaning double chance while the draw hedge covers stalemate risk.

Predicted winner

Cultural Leonesa II

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Cultural Leonesa II and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Cultural Leonesa II 1–0 UD Santa Marta (24 Jan 2026)
2. UD Santa Marta 2–0 Cultural Leonesa II (13 Sep 2025)
3. UD Santa Marta 0–1 Cultural Leonesa II (23 Feb 2025)
4. Cultural Leonesa II 4–3 UD Santa Marta (12 Oct 2024)
5. UD Santa Marta 0–0 Cultural Leonesa II (03 Feb 2024)