UD San Pedro vs Motril Prediction

Match prediction

• Motril's unbeaten four-match start and superior defensive record justify favouring them, though the draw's equal 45% probability makes the double chance the safer expression.
• San Pedro's perfect home record with two clean sheets conflicts with their weak overall defence rating, suggesting the model may understate their home resilience.
• Motril's attack and San Pedro's attack are rated identically, so the edge rests on Motril's far stronger defence rather than any offensive superiority.
• Both teams' goal totals stay under 3.5 in every recent match, supporting the -3.5 goals component of the advice.
• Head-to-head results are mixed across four meetings, which tempers confidence in an outright Motril win and reinforces the draw-inclusive double chance.
• San Pedro's heavy away defeats to Granada II and Cacereño show vulnerability that Motril's unbeaten form could exploit, though their home solidity remains a counterweight.

Predicted winner

Motril

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Motril and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. UD San Pedro 2–1 Motril (29 Mar 2026)
2. Motril 3–3 UD San Pedro (16 Nov 2025)
3. Motril 4–0 UD San Pedro (24 Apr 2022)
4. UD San Pedro 0–1 Motril (19 Dec 2021)